Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) could overtake SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) in market capitalization by July 2027, according to an analysis by OpenAI’s ChatGPT that considered the latest developments across Elon Musk’s companies.
The projection comes as SpaceX holds a market value of about $2.16 trillion following its historic initial public offering, while Tesla is valued at roughly $1.55 trillion, leaving a gap of about 28.5%.
According to the analysis, Tesla has a higher probability of delivering near-term commercial milestones that could drive faster valuation growth over the next 12 months.
The company continues to expand its autonomous driving ambitions through Full Self-Driving (FSD) updates, including Version 14, while increasing robotaxi operations in select U.S. cities.
Tesla is also preparing for Cybercab production and advancing Optimus, its humanoid robot platform, which is viewed as a potentially significant long-term revenue opportunity.
As a result, Tesla’s valuation is becoming increasingly tied to its artificial intelligence and robotics businesses rather than vehicle sales alone.
Based on these factors, ChatGPT estimates Tesla could reach a market capitalization of between $2.4 trillion and $2.7 trillion by mid-2027, allowing it to surpass SpaceX if execution remains on track.
Under the base-case scenario, Tesla would overtake SpaceX around July 2027 and hold a market value about 6% to 8% higher shortly after the crossover.
The case for SpaceX stock growth
While Tesla may have the edge in near-term commercialization, ChatGPT noted that SpaceX continues to benefit from strong investor interest following its public market debut.
The company’s long-term growth strategy remains centered on Starship, Starlink, and artificial intelligence initiatives integrated through xAI.
SpaceX has advanced testing of its Starship V3 vehicle, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines, redesigned propulsion systems, and increased propellant capacity.
The company is also working toward orbital refueling demonstrations, expanding production facilities, and increasing launch capacity across multiple sites.
Meanwhile, Starlink remains SpaceX’s largest revenue driver and is widely viewed as the financial foundation supporting future Mars missions, lunar exploration projects, and broader space infrastructure ambitions.
The company also continues to play a key role in NASA’s Artemis program while pursuing potential uncrewed Mars missions later in 2026.
On the other hand, Tesla still faces regulatory and production risks tied to autonomous driving, Cybercab, and Optimus.
Meanwhile, SpaceX could retain its lead if Starship development progresses faster than expected, Starlink growth accelerates, or investors place greater value on its space infrastructure business.
