Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) stock delivered impressive price appreciation in the first half of 2024. However, an August 27 report from now-defunct short-selling activist group Hindenburg Research brought up allegations of widespread fraud and accounting malpractice.
A day later, the semiconductor business announced that it would delay the filing of its annual report. By late September, a probe from the Department of Justice (DOJ) was underway — and in late October, the company’s auditor, Ernst & Young, resigned over concerns surrounding Super Micro’s internal controls.
By late November, Super Micro had hired a new auditor, BDO — and while positive developments in the longstanding affair led to short-lived surges now and then, SMCI stock has seen a steep decline in price.
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To be more precise, over the past 6 months, the price of a Supermicro share has dropped by 52.12% — although the stock has rallied by 9.61% since the beginning of 2025. At press time, SMCI shares were trading hands at $33.41.
As severe as these losses are, the semiconductor venture is on a decisive path toward regaining compliance. One Wall Street analyst thinks that it can succeed — and secure significant returns for shareholders.
Loop Capital predicts a 19.72% surge for SMCI stock
In a note shared with investors on January 23, Loop Capital equity researcher Ananda Baruah increased the price target on SMCI stock to $40 from $35, maintaining a prior ‘Buy’ rating. If met, the analyst’s forecast would imply a 19.72% upside from current prices.
Baruah further clarified that SMCI remains an important company in an important space — and that fully regaining compliance could serve as a strong bullish catalyst. In addition, the ramp-up of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) GB200 and GB300 (Blackwell) line of products, which are key components in Super Micro’s specialized server solutions, can provide a strong tailwind.
He did note, however, that Supermicro could experience a ‘clunky’ first half of CY 2025 — at least until May or June, when key tier 2 customers, mainly cloud service providers (CSPs) begin receiving Nvidia’s sGB200 components.
Finally, Loop Capital restated the $40 target with conviction — with a small addendum that there is a possibility that the path to that price point won’t be a straight line. The $40 price target was constructed using a 10x-11x multiple with the $4.00 in earnings per share (EPS) that the firm believes Super Micro can provide in the latter half of 2025.
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