A Polymarket trader known as “fishalive” turned approximately $428,000 into more than $4.7 million in just 90 minutes after betting against Spain winning its FIFA World Cup match against Cabo Verde.
The trade was placed ahead of Spain’s June 15 World Cup fixture, where prediction markets gave the European side roughly a 90% chance of victory.
Instead of backing the favorite, the trader purchased shares in the “No” outcome, effectively wagering that Spain would fail to win.
When the match ended in a surprise scoreless draw, the position paid out at full value, generating more than $4 million in profit from a single market.
According to data shared by Arkham Intelligence, ‘fishalive’ bought millions of shares in the outcome that Spain would not win. The market was priced at around $0.09 per share before kickoff, reflecting the low probability assigned to the result.
The unexpected draw caused the contract to settle at $1 per share, delivering a windfall of more than $4.7 million within hours.
The trade ranks among the largest single-event gains recorded on Polymarket during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Data also shows that the trader profited from a separate handicap market tied to the same match.
Cabo Verde handicap prediction
The trader backed Cabo Verde to cover a +2.5-goal handicap, a wager that comfortably paid out after the scoreless draw. Combined with the main position, the two bets generated nearly $9 million in total profits.
Notably, Spain entered the match as one of the tournament’s strongest favorites, with prediction markets and bettors overwhelmingly expecting a victory.
However, Cabo Verde held Spain scoreless for 90 minutes, producing one of the biggest upsets of the World Cup so far.
The result triggered significant losses for traders who backed Spain while rewarding a small group of contrarian bettors.
