Gold’s latest drop not only took it to $4,043 but also slightly below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) thus, according to the popular on-chain analyst on X, Ali Martinez, creating the potential for an explosive rally.
Specifically, the expert noted in a June 24 social media post that the commodity found itself in a similar position in late September 2023 when a dip to $1,932 eventually led to a 190% upsurge.
Should the pattern repeat itself, gold could soar well above $10,000 to as high as $11,724 by mid-2028.
Still, a repeat of such remarkable performance appears somewhat unlikely. To begin with, the yellow metal is, even at its lowered, press time price, changing hands at a price far higher than anything seen before October 2025, thus limiting its future growth potential.
Additionally, Ali Martinez explained that, for the conditions for the upsurge to be met, gold would need to achieve a weekly close above the 50-week SMA at $4,320.
Thus, the commodity would have to rally 6.85% from $4,043 at press time before the odds of it enjoying another major bull run become noteworthy.
Why another Gold upsurge is in the cards in 2026
Meanwhile, there exists a floor to how low gold can go in the foreseeable future as one of the key sources of upward pressure – Central Banks – appear to still be bolstering their commodity reserves en masse.
The trend, triggered by a combination of factors including inflationary pressure, geopolitical uncertainty, but also the rise of alternatives for countries seeking to avoid damage from unilateral U.S. sanctions, has been evident through most of the 2020s.
Given that the developments in 2026 included multiple new wars or military operations, further tightening of sanctions against various individuals, organizations, entities, and countries, and an apparent loss of confidence in American debt, it is unlikely the buying pressure will ease.
Could the Gold price dip hint at imminent financial crisis?
Meanwhile, some experts such as Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone have been speculating that the pump that took gold to $5,400 highs earlier in the year and, eventually, into a price crash could be a signal of greater financial pain to come.
Notably, McGlone highlighted in his June 21 analysis that there is a remarkable – though not complete – similarity between the performance of precious metals in 2008 and 2026.
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