Few companies in history have enjoyed stock market success akin to Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) remarkable rally that started in late 2022. Despite years of growth – and the late 2025 correction – NVDA shares appear still to be a strong buy at the onset of 2026.
Looking at the Wall Street analyst consensus, it is clear that the bullishness has far from faded. In fact, Nvidia stock is expected to rise by an average of 40.91% over the next 12 months, according to data retrieved by Finbold from TipRanks on January 2.
The most recent rating revisions – those published between Christmas and New Year’s Day – are likewise uniformly positive, as they all rank NVDA stock as a ‘buy’ and forecast rallies between 26% and 60.86%.
Specifically, the least optimistic of these, the one issued by UBS’ Timothy Arcuri on December 29, forecasts a 26% rise from the latest closing price of $186.50 to $235. The most bullish, provided by C. J. Muse of Cantor Fitzgerald on December 26, sees a rally to $300.
Nvidia’s success on the business side and the favorable political climate all appear to back such optimism.
Nvidia bound to hit the ground running in 2026
Perhaps the first expected upward catalyst is expected already in February as Nvidia is set to resume chip exports to China.
Though the exact material circumstances of re-entering the market are hard to gauge – the U.S. government is set to take 25% of sales, and China is expected to keep prioritizing domestic production – renewed presence in the world’s second economy in nominal, and first by ‘PPP’, is sure to drive investor confidence.
Similarly, the semiconductor giant’s technological advancements remain impressive, and, as impactful as the Blackwell series of chips has been, 2026 will bring even more cutting-edge Rubin (R100) architecture.
Why Nvidia stock could struggle in 2026
Still, the picture isn’t as rosy upon the second look. The rapid arrival of Rubin highlights a concern many have been voicing since the apparently circular structure of artificial intelligence (AI) investment deals became widely known.
Hardware components have a limited shelf life under the best of circumstances, and between the development of new architecture and data center wear and tear, any large orders are liable to swiftly become obsolete.
Another pressure point can be expected from rising competition. Major technology firms such as Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) are already developing more tailor-made chips for their own use, and both Chinese and American semiconductor firms appear to be catching up.
With Nvidia’s products historically being on the pricier side and NVDA’s market cap exceeding the annual GDP of Germany at one point in 2025, many data center operators and investors may accelerate their migration to cheaper alternatives.
Nvidia shares beat the broader stock market in 2025
Whatever the future may bring, it is undeniable that Nvidia shares have performed well in the last 12 months. The semiconductor giant started 2025 trading at $138.31 and rose 34.84% to reach the year’s final closing price of $186.50.
Not only did NVDA outperform the market as a whole, but it also demonstrated incredible staying power even amidst heightened valuation, as the 34% rise came in the wake of the 1,000% rally between late 2022 and December 31, 2024.
Featured image via Shutterstock
