Though it has hardly been a week since Bitcoin (BTC) was above $108,000 and three since it stood over $106,000, the world’s premier cryptocurrency has once again fallen below $100,000.
Specifically, following a 5.78% drop in the last 24 hours, BTC is, at press time, changing hands at $98,732.
The downturn can be linked to a broader downturn that had affected American markets and assets with substantial exposure to the U.S. after China made its novel artificial intelligence (AI) model open source – freely available.
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One prominent on-chain expert, however, believes the current downturn is but the final stop before Bitcoin goes fully parabolic in the ongoing cryptocurrency bull market.
Why Bitcoin’s next move might be skyward
Specifically, the digital assets analyst Ali Martinez made an X post late on Sunday, January 26, pointing out that BTC’s performance in the opening month of 2025 is highly similar to the trading in the 2015-2018 cycle.
To reinforce his point, the expert provided an overlay chart showing a familiar pattern: a slow and volatile climb with numerous ups and downs leading into a major upswing. According to the post, the ongoing cycle is, at press time, at the cusp of a strong upward move.
Furthermore, the attached chart indicates that Bitcoin could hit its cycle high in September 2025 and enter what can be interpreted as the final plunge ahead of the next bear market by September 2026.
The optimistic outlook in the face of the plunge below $100,000 might not be as out of touch as could appear at first glance. BTC’s performance in the last 16 or so months has been such that even the strongest and most shocking of downturns failed to truly jeopardize the overall positive performance.
For example, despite the last 24 hours and 7 days bringing a noteworthy decline, Bitcoin remains 4.94% in the green year-to-date (YTD). Once the time frame is expanded further, perhaps to the last 12 months, the rally becomes even more impressive as it demonstrates BTC is up 135.66%.
How high could Bitcoin go once the parabolic rally begins?
While the cryptocurrency market is notoriously difficult to predict, Martinez’s previous analyses offer some insight into how high Bitcoin can climb once it goes parabolic. Specifically, the on-chain expert identified $220,000 as the most likely cycle top.
As high as Martinez’s price target is, it is worth pointing out that others – most notably the cryptocurrency lobbyist Perianne Boring – believe BTC might become bigger than gold in terms of its market capitalization and trade above $800,000 before the end of 2025.
Featured image via Shutterstock
