Jim Cramer, a CNBC market analyst and financial influencer, warns that a sharp surge in oil prices could be followed by a significant stock market crash.

In an April 7 post on X, Cramer argued that historical patterns suggest the ongoing rally in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil does not align with bullish expectations for equities.

More specifically, the Mad Money host noted that WTI is now up more than 100% year-to-date, highlighting that rallies of that magnitude have typically been followed by stock market drawdowns of no less than 20%.

“West Texas now up 101% for the year. True test as we have never has [sic] a stock market go down less than 20% after a 100% rise…Treasurys not complying with bulls either,” he wrote.

The bond market does not support the bullish narrative either

Beyond equities, Cramer also added that the U.S. Treasurys, which are often seen as a key benchmark of investor sentiment and macro expectations, are “not complying with bulls” either.

His remarks come at a time when markets are grappling with elevated volatility, shifting rate expectations, and questions about the sustainability of recent gains.

Just a week prior, however, Cramer also expressed belief that oil rallies are going to slow down, focusing primarily on Chevron (NYSE: CVX) as the oil futures leader, implying that a pullback in the stock could signal a near-term peak in crude prices.

Over the past five sessions, Chevron shares have dropped nearly 7%, but oil prices are jumping. Just hours before Cramer’s warning, global oil rose ahead of a new deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. At press time, Brent crude was up by about 0.5%, trading at $110 a barrel.

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