Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is approaching a critical technical inflection point that could determine whether the recent pullback stabilizes or accelerates into a deeper correction.
In a February 17 post on X, market analyst Ali Martinez identified $399 as a key support level for TSLA shares. Should the electric vehicle (EV) giant plunge below the critical price, it would face a series of rapidly descending supports until finally hitting $217.
Specifically, Martinez warned that a decisive break below $399 could expose TSLA stock to decisively lower level technical targets at $325, $266, and $217.
Why Tesla stock is unlikely to crash to $217
Fortunately for Tesla shareholders, the support zones identified by Martinez appear relatively unlikely to be breached in the foreseeable future. Elon Musk’s EV company has, so far, been relatively successful at avoiding catastrophic crashes even in the wake of extremely bearish developments.
Notably, the 4.71% decline in the year-to-date (YTD) chart is arguably modest, given it came amidst dire reports of a 2025 global decline in sales and the garish January figures for vehicle registrations in Europe.
Still, remaining vigilant regarding sudden TSLA stock moves would be prudent. Last year was notable for a broad slowdown in the entire EV industry.
Why Tesla stock is at risk of a 2026 crash
Elon Musk’s turbulent yet close relationship with the Trump White House was all but bound to damage sales in Europe, given the American administration’s increasingly antagonistic attitude toward the EU.
Similarly, the President’s opposition to policies aimed at boosting EV sales was bound to affect the industry in the U.S.
While such shocks might, arguably, not be seen as concerning, especially since they have not yet led to a catastrophic downturn, the fact that other major companies are seeing a more global decline in volume strongly indicates that Tesla stock remains in danger.
Case in point, China’s BYD, one of the strongest EV companies in the world, recently announced a significant slowdown.
Such a setup could be especially dangerous for TSLA shares.
Though the company has been lagging on the business side throughout last year and had multiple occasions where a stock market crash was prevented merely by earnings reports not being as dire as most traders feared, Tesla’s equity is actually up 17.88% in the 12-month chart.
This discrepancy is, arguably, making TSLA stock particularly vulnerable to adverse developments such as the loss of the Martinez-identified critical support at $399.
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