Bitcoin (BTC) remains at the forefront of discussions as the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve due to its unique setup. Bitcoin’s unique economic model, driven by its halving events, has intrigued the general financial world.
Since the cryptocurrency’s inception 14 years ago, the Bitcoin network has undergone only three halving events. Indeed, according to data provided by crypto content creator Shalva Machitidze, Bitcoin has a total of 32 halving events with 29 remaining, with attention focusing on how the asset will be impacted.
It is worth noting that halving is one of the key features that sets Bitcoin apart from traditional fiat currencies due to its predetermined issuance schedule. Notably, approximately every four years, or after every 210,000 blocks mined, miners’ reward for confirming transactions and adding them to the blockchain is cut in half.
In the early days of Bitcoin, miners received 50 BTC per block, but after the first halving in 2012, this reward was reduced to 25 BTC. Subsequent halving events occurred in 2016 and 2020, reducing the reward to 12.5 BTC and then 6.25 BTC, respectively.
Besides reducing miner rewards, the halving event also affects the number of coins in circulation. This impacts supply and demand, causing price fluctuations. Additionally, it curbs Bitcoin’s inflation by reducing new coin creation, aligning with its deflationary design.
What to expect from the remaining 29 Bitcoin halving events
With the remaining 29 halving events, Bitcoin’s predetermined scarcity is often cited as one of the primary factors contributing to the asset’s potential value appreciation. This scarcity, combined with growing demand, has historically driven up the price of Bitcoin.
Historical data indicates that Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant rallies after previous halving events. Following the first halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin surged from less than $12 to about $1,000 within a year. Similarly, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin’s price substantially increased to $20,000 by the end of 2017.
The most recent halving in May 2020 saw Bitcoin’s price soar from approximately $8,000 to almost $69,000 in late 2021. These historical patterns have fueled optimism among investors and speculators as they eagerly await the next 29 halvings and their potential impact on the cryptocurrency’s price, with 2024 as the next main focus.
Will the next halving event trigger a price rally?
It is worth noting that past halving events didn’t solely trigger bull markets. Larger macroeconomic factors likely played a significant role, particularly in the form of favorable fiat liquidity conditions led by institutional capital inflow into the asset. For instance, Bitcoin has been battered by high inflation and interest rate decisions over the past year.
After the past three halving events, Bitcoin experienced substantial triple-digit price surges, reaching new all-time highs within 12 to 18 months before entering significant downtrends.
Interestingly, these bear markets began to lose momentum approximately 15 to 16 months before the subsequent halving. For instance, Bitcoin has gained almost 55% in 2023, representing a rebound from the previous year’s bear market. This trajectory aligns with the historical timing of previous price recoveries.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin remains steady above the $26,000 level, aiming for a potential rally toward $30,000. By press time, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $26,608, reflecting daily gains of approximately 0.31%.
Generally, the cryptocurrency market is highly speculative and volatile, and past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.