On November 3, 2025, Scion Asset Management filed its final 13-F, in which the legendary ‘Big Short’ trader, Michael Burry, first disclosed his controversial 5 million-share Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock short position.
One year later, at the closing bell of November 3, 2026, the bet against the software giant still appeared a winner at face value, despite a recent rally seemingly sending the famous investor underwater on the bet.
Specifically, Palantir shares ended the day when the filing was made, changing hands at $207.18, and met the latest evening bell 15.34% lower at $175.40, indicating Burry’s short position remains profitable.
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Why Michael Burry might have already lost on his Palantir stock short
A closer examination, however, reveals that the actual state of the bearish bet is highly dependent on the exact timing of the trade. Indeed, while the filing was made in early November, it covers the activity between July 1 and September 30, 2025.
Palantir stock was, notably, above its latest closing price for only a fraction of the quarter, spending much of the first half of August 2025 and late September of the same year above $175.
Though Burry’s most famous stock market maneuver gives cause to believe he initiated his PLTR short position near the highs of the third quarter (Q3) of the previous year, it is also plausible he poorly timed the bet, thus needing the equity to fall significantly more to be above the water line with his original trade.
‘Big Short’ Michael Burry estimates Palantir stock could crash 71%
Still, the ‘Big Short’ investor has, through the subsequent 12 months, generally remained confident he had made the right call. Not only has he added to the position in 2026, but he has also been highly critical of big tech’s accounting practices, with Palantir being one of the firms he focused his criticism on.
Additionally, should Michael Burry’s thesis prove correct, he will have profited even if he set up his bet below $130 – the bottom of the Q3 2025 range – as he estimated PLTR shares’ fair value at roughly $50, though he did also move his crash timeline into 2027.
