The London-based global quantitative investment management company Qube Research & Technologies unveiled a massive $105 million short position against Trump Media (NASDAQ: DJT) in the German Federal Gazette.
The filing revealed that the hedge fund established the short position – which accounts for a substantial 2.53% of DJT’s total float – on April 10, the day Trump Media stock hit its April high of $20.27.
The position is interesting because, thanks to DJT shares’ performance in the last 12 months, it can be interpreted as a bet against the Trump presidency itself.
Why investing in DJT stock is like betting on President Trump
Specifically, during the 2024 campaign, Trump Media became a meme stock of sorts as its price moves started reflecting investors’ opinions about the likelihood of the billionaire’s re-election.
The phenomenon was evident in the sharp plunge in DJT shares once Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the opposing candidate and in the strong rally starting in mid-September as Trump started regaining the lead.
Similarly, Trump Media’s primary role as a conduit to express one’s attitudes towards the billionaire once again became apparent as the stock plunged after the election was decided and the news cycle quieted down.
The persistent link between the person and the equity was again seen earlier in April when the President urged his social media followers to invest hours before the official tariff pause announcement. The post sent DJT equity to its April 10 highs.
Is Qube betting Trump’s presidency will be a failure?
Elsewhere, despite the evident phenomenon of Trump Media investments being used to bet on or against Trump himself, it is relatively unlikely Qube is using a sentiment-based strategy.
Indeed, though the fund has yet to comment on the specific short position, it reiterated that its investments are guided by a quantitative model in reply to Reuters’ April 14 inquiry.
Whether a less mathematical sentiment drives the short position or not, there is a strong chance Qube will find its bet lucrative. Despite the April rally, DJT stock has been on a decisive downward trajectory in 2025 and is, with its press time price of $18.85, 44.69% down year-to-date (YTD).
The fact that the hedge fund established its position when Trump Media shares were at their recent high only increases the odds of it being a successful trade.
Still, DJT stock’s link to Trump does present an unorthodox risk factor. Should there be any action by or toward the billionaire that would signal the wider market would turn optimistic or that would compel investors to express support for the President, Qube could face sudden liquidation.
Featured image via Shutterstock
