Summary:
⚈ European EV demand and Tesla’s slowdown may boost Nio’s market share
⚈ Slow rollout and weak deliveries may delay stock recovery until after 2025
The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio (NYSE: NIO) finally appears poised to regain $5 price per share with the rollout of its new Firefly model.
Thanks to its low pricing, starting from $16,410, Nio has the potential to fill a relatively uncontested niche of low-cost, small EVs, with the European market appearing to be particularly fertile ground for the Firefly.
Electric cars have generally seen a sales increase in 2025, despite the delivery figures for some of the major companies in the industry declining significantly. For example, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) sales in Spain dropped 17% in the first four months of the year, despite the 54% increase in overall EV deliveries.
The situation demonstrates that Nio could benefit from growing demand and retreating competition from the biggest player in the market once the Firefly lands on the continent during the summer, sometime between June and August.
Despite the likely favorable market, some doubt exists about whether Nio investors will see the benefits in the near to long term. Despite the overall growth in sales for the sector, the Chinese EV maker has suffered record-low deliveries in the Netherlands in April, and saw a 55% drop in Norway in the same month.
Why Nio might not reclaim $5 before 2026
Nio stock’s recent trend has been overwhelmingly negative. Since 2025 started, NIO shares have collapsed 8.83% to their press time price of $3.98.
Furthermore, Nio’s 30-day 17.71% rally is not as bullish as it might appear, both due to the 9.58% drop in the last seven days and the momentum shifted from upward to downward on April 28, one day before Firefly shipments in China started.
There is a strong possibility that the upside will not be regained before 2025 ends as Nio the international rollout of the low-cost EV will take months – for example, the right-hand drive variant for the U.K. and Southeast Asia is due only in October – and even once the model is widely available, its impact might not be evident in the financials until the quarter after.
Lastly, despite the recent negativity, Nio stock has managed to climb above $5 on multiple occasions in recent months, with October 2024 and March 2025 being the most notable examples, demonstrating the price target remains plausible, provided the Firefly is a success.
Featured image via Shutterstock
