As Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock price establishes above the $100 support zone, technical indicators suggest the semiconductor giant is facing a possible 50% crash.
Notably, Nvidia shares initially plunged amid rising U.S.-China trade tensions but rebounded late Friday on reports that the White House had exempted key sectors like semiconductors from retaliatory tariffs.
Although the stock is showing strength for now, the possibility of further downside remains, especially as President Donald Trump has announced plans to issue new tariffs on semiconductor imports.
Nevertheless, the artificial intelligence (AI) giant’s stock price is up 1.1%, trading at $112 as of press time.
Nvidia technicals signal crash
Looking at the technical setup, Nvidia is likely to drop to $56, a level aligning with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). The equity has triggered a “Sell” signal on the weekly time frame, coinciding with a break below its major support structure of around $100.
The latest candle shows a 17.62% rebound to $110.93 after dropping below $90 during the tariff-induced market sell-off, but the bounce might be only temporary.
The technical setup points to a breach of the mid-term moving average and trend support zone, opening the door for a retest of the 200-week mA, currently sitting near $56.
That level, which was last touched in late 2022, represents a macro support area and a critical psychological zone. A move toward the 200-week SMA would imply an over 50% drop from current levels.
Wall Street bullish on Nvidia stock
Meanwhile, although the technical outlook appears grim, Wall Street analysts on TipRanks forecast NVDA at $174 over the next 12 months. Of 41 analysts, 37 rate it a ‘Buy,’ 4 suggest ‘Hold,’ and none recommend selling. The consensus is a ‘Strong Buy,’ with price targets ranging from $120 to $220.
In line with this sentiment, on April 11, Citi’s Atif Malik lowered Nvidia’s price target from $163 to $150, citing a projected slowdown in GPU sales due to expected spending cuts from hyperscalers, which are reducing data center investments. Despite trimming GPU sales forecasts, Citi maintained a ‘Buy’ rating.
That same day, UBS reaffirmed its $185 price target and ‘Buy’ rating on Nvidia. The firm pointed to strong Taiwan export data and a 10% month-over-month rise in TSMC’s March sales as bullish signals for Nvidia’s data center momentum. UBS expects an 18% quarter-over-quarter jump in data center revenue, fueled by ongoing AI infrastructure demand. However, it cautioned that the recent export strength may reflect front-loaded orders due to tariff concerns rather than sustained demand.
Featured image via Shutterstock
