The rise in popularity of the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket and the remarkable – and often strange – success of various users in accurately forecasting events has led to a rise in theories that numerous insiders are utilizing the platform to earn quick profits.
The most recent account to draw such attention, designated BulkeyBull, managed a remarkable shift in fortunes within just one week, turning its ‘Profit/Loss’ balance from $0 on February 26 to $99,636 at press time on March 5.
This user’s fortunes began turning in earnest with a series of military-related bets, starting with just under $2,000 in the small hours of February 28 for a total one-week return of 4,882%.
Polymarket crypto trader’s most profitable trades were about warfare
So far, the majority of BulkeyBull’s bets were centered on American actions in the Middle East.
Perhaps the most conspicuous individual bets were that the U.S. would hit Iran by Saturday (February 28), that they would hit Iraq by February 28, that Israel would strike the Islamic Republic on the same date, and that Khamenei would no longer be the Supreme Leader by the end of the same day.
Of these, the bets regarding the ousting – or, as it turned out, assassination – of Khamenei and regarding Israel were, by far, the most profitable. The former saw a $73,186 payout on an $18,050, and the latter saw $22,374 gained from $4,859.
Some of the earlier curious predictive trades involved the early January military action against Venezuela, and President Nicholas Maduro, and the December hits on the alleged ‘drug boats.’
Is BulkeyBull a military insider?
Still, while the timing and the success of the trades are remarkable, like with most other similar examples on Polymarket, there are no guarantees that the trader is an insider.
To begin with, BulkeyBull was proven wrong when betting that the U.S. would strike Venezuela in December 2025 and that Khamenei would be ousted before the end of January 2026.
Similarly, with President Donald Trump’s official nomination of Kevin Warsh for the next Fed Chair, the bet that the nominee would be Kevin Hassett was fully reserved as ‘lost.’
Other indications that the trader might not be an insider are that, arguably, all of their winning bets could have been made using publicly available data.
Between the U.S. military buildup, the tendency to attack when the financial markets are closed, the recent history of using diplomacy as cover for aggressive preparations, and the rhetoric, it stood to reason that an attack on Iran would come quickly and likely on a Saturday.
Similarly, the presence of Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and Israel’s overall posture in the Middle East also does much to explain some of the other victories. In fact, out of the latest winning predictive trades, the one regarding Khamenei was the most risky, as there were no guarantees he would be murdered in the first strike.
Still, recent rhetoric strongly hinted that such an attempt would be made, thus making the bet a sensible – if macabre – high-risk, high-reward play.
Polymarket crypto trader’s top ongoing bets
Lastly, whether the Polymarket user is an insider or merely a very lucky or discerning individual, some of their open wagers might also be of interest.
As of press time on March 5, BulkeyBull is also betting that American ground forces will not enter Iran by at least March 14 and that the war – or the large-scale military operation, as the White House put it – will not end before March 15, but that it will be over by the end of June with the fall of the Islamic Republic.
Outside the province of war, the trader appears to be of the opinion that, later this month, the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by at least 25 basis points (BPS).
Featured image via Shutterstock
