A leading physicist has warned that rapid advances in quantum computing are bringing forward the timeline for breaking modern cryptography, posing a growing threat to Bitcoin (BTC).
According to Chris Tam, director at BTQ Technologies, quantum computing is no longer theoretical but an active, rapidly evolving field, he said in an interview with David Lin published on April 17.
In his assessment, Satoshi Nakamoto did not initially factor quantum threats into Bitcoin’s design, though the risk was acknowledged later.
He added that Bitcoin’s decentralized development model has left the issue of quantum vulnerability as an ongoing, and at times divisive, topic within its community.
The central concern, Tam suggested, is not whether quantum machines will eventually break current encryption standards, but how soon that capability could emerge.
“ Fast forward to the present day, we have this very decentralized network of engineers and maintainers operating over the Bitcoin core codebase. It is still a relatively divisive issue within the community where people acknowledge that quantum computers exist, but the question they’re trying to face and understand is, well, how soon will it become a risk, an existential risk to Bitcoin?
Timeline for breaking Bitcoin code
Over time, projections for when quantum systems might compromise widely used cryptographic methods have shifted significantly. What was once estimated around 2040 has been repeatedly brought forward, with each wave of research and engineering progress tightening the timeline.
Tam noted that acceleration is already shaping real-world planning, with major technology firms such as Google and Cloudflare targeting around 2029 for a transition to post-quantum cryptography.
The physicist emphasized that encryption underpins nearly all modern data transmission, meaning a successful quantum breakthrough would have far-reaching consequences across financial systems, communications, and broader internet infrastructure.
Advances in quantum computing
Notably, concerns around quantum computing have resurfaced in recent months following a new Google Quantum AI paper.
The study suggested that quantum attacks on Bitcoin’s encryption may require far fewer resources than previously estimated, accelerating expectations for a potential breakthrough.
The findings point to a significant reduction in the computing power needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, raising fresh questions about how soon a cryptographically relevant quantum computer could emerge.
To this end, industry reactions remain divided, with Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, arguing that the threat is still decades away. Consequently, he has supported gradual, optional upgrades to quantum-resistant systems, cautioning against rushed changes that could introduce new risks.
In contrast, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has warned the timeline may have compressed to just a few years, urging faster coordination within the crypto sector to prepare for a potential shift.
