Ripple is preparing to unlock 1 billion XRP on September 1, less than two weeks from now, as part of its long-running escrow schedule on the XRP Ledger.
The event comes with XRP trading near the key $1 level after months of weakness, placing renewed focus on the token’s supply dynamics and potential market impact.
The upcoming escrow unlock follows a process that has been in place since late 2017, when Ripple locked 55 billion XRP into time-based escrow contracts. These contracts release up to 1 billion XRP at the start of every month.
Despite the unlock, Ripple has historically not released the entire amount into circulation. Instead, the cryptocurrency company typically places between 600 million and 800 million XRP back into new escrow contracts.
As a result, the actual increase in circulating supply is usually between 200 million and 400 million XRP.
Ripple uses these tokens to support its operations, including On-Demand Liquidity services, institutional partnerships, and ecosystem growth initiatives.
At current prices near $1, the net monthly supply addition is worth approximately $200 million to $400 million. That figure remains relatively small compared with XRP’s daily trading volume, which frequently exceeds $1 billion across major exchanges.
The release is one of the most closely watched events in the XRP ecosystem, but its predictable nature has historically limited its impact on price action.
While escrow unlocks have occasionally triggered short-term volatility, XRP has often stabilized once the amount returned to escrow was confirmed, as traders and institutions have long factored the monthly releases into their expectations.
XRP price analysis
Meanwhile, the unlock comes at a time when XRP has slipped below the crucial $1 support level. The asset was trading at $0.99 at press time, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours and more than 1% on the weekly timeframe.
Overall, XRP is showing signs of weakness from a trend-following perspective. At the current price, the token is trading below both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.07 and its 200-day SMA of $1.28.
Trading below the 50-day SMA suggests short-term momentum remains bearish, while the gap beneath the 200-day SMA indicates the broader long-term trend is still under pressure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37.83, placing it in neutral territory but close to the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests selling pressure has been significant, though not yet extreme.
A further decline could push XRP into oversold conditions, while a rebound in RSI above 50 would signal improving momentum.
