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Run for your lives! Veteran analyst predicts 50% collapse for Bitcoin

Run for your lives! Veteran analyst predicts 50% collapse for Bitcoin

After giving much cause for excitement and optimism between October 2023 and April 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) is now generating little other than fear over where it may go. 

While the approval of nine spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January gave rise to hope of mass institutional adoption – hope BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) does not consider misplaced – and the halving triggering forecasts for an imminent surge to $100,000 and, by the year’s end, to $300,000, the world’s premier cryptocurrency has spent the better part of last month declining.

Indeed, after hitting $73,000 in March, the coin dropped below $60,000 and – at one point – even struggled to hold on to $57,000. Though some experts still consider the first week of May will see BTC find a bottom and recover, other veteran analysts believe the cycle might have already seen its top.

Why Bitcoin topped in March

On the very last day of April, Peter Brandt, the founder of Factor Trading and a veteran chart analyst, opined that there is 25% chance that the previously-seen $73,000 is this cycle’s top and that it is most likely Bitcoin will soon plummet to 2021 lows in the mid-$30,000s.

Brandt backed the prediction with a concept called ‘exponential decay’ – a model that states that each Bitcoin cycle is approximately 20% smaller than the previous one – and previously forecast, using the methodology, that the current rally will peak at $72,723.

The analyst – who correctly predicted the 2019 crash – however, concluded that the short-term drop does not dampen Bitcoin’s long-term prospects and remains highly bullish about the cryptocurrency.

BTC price chart

While it remains to be seen if Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle or if an even greater bull run is ahead, the fact remains that the world’s foremost cryptocurrency has been struggling recently.

Though the coin recovered somewhat – 0.52% –  in the last 24 hours of trading and Bitcoin price today stands at $59,915 BTC is down a significant 10.17% in the last 30 days.

BTC 30-day price chart. Source: Finbold

Still, it is worth remembering that the current downturn comes at the heels of – and is far from erasing – the cryptocurrency’s massive 2024 gains that, at the time of publication, place it 34.43% in the green in the year-to-date (YTD) chart.

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