Summary
⚈ Analysts predict a 60% rally, with strong buy consensus despite lower targets.
⚈ Earnings volatility and past forecast misses could cause short-term downside.
The American solar company First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) has been making rapid gains over the last 30 days, with FSLR stock rallying 13.02% during that time frame and reaching its press time price of $142.89.
With the latest monthly move, the green energy firm managed to break its previous downtrend, which had seen it lose 18.93% since the start of 2025, and substantially outperform the broader market. Indeed, the benchmark Nasdaq 100 index is up just 0.78% in the last 30 days.
At press time on April 28, there appear to be two chief catalysts for the move: the recently unveiled and staggeringly high tariffs on foreign solar companies, and the upcoming earnings report, scheduled for April 29.
Should the tariffs, reported to be as high as 3,500%, be implemented, they could help American firms like First Solar regain some of the ground they lost to Chinese solar companies over the last decade, much like they have already gained in the stock market following the initial announcement.
Similarly, a strong quarterly report could reinforce the FSLR stock rally and send the equity toward its high price target.
Wall Street overwhelmingly rates FSLR stock as a buy
Looking at the analyst consensus for First Solar shares, buying ahead of the earnings report could be savvy. FSLR stock is expected to rally, on average, 60.31% from its press time price and reach $227.41 within the next 12 months.
Furthermore, even the lowest forecast anticipates a 2.21% rally to $145, while the highest predicts First Solar to soar 114.30% to $304.
The distribution of ratings also reinforces the bullish outlook. Out of the 38 analysts represented on the stock analysis platform TradingView, 32 rate First Solar stock as either a ‘buy’ or a ‘strong buy,’ six are ‘neutral,’ and none believe selling is the right call.
Elsewhere, while all analyst revisions in the last two weeks featured a price target downgrade, all also saw Wall Street experts retain their previous FSLR ‘buy’ ratings.
Specifically, RBC lowered its forecast from $251 to $237 on April 14, and on the same day, UBS revised its forecast from $285 to $240. On April 15, Baird kept the ‘outperform’ rating, despite lowering the price target from $267 to $240.
The two most recent reassessments followed a similar pattern. On April 21, Piper Sandler reduced its forecast from $230 to $205, and on April 23, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) changed its FSLR stock price target from $238 to $223.
Why buying First Solar ahead of earnings isn’t riskless
Despite the optimistic forecasts, volatility is likely around the earnings report with a bias for a temporary downside due to the FSLR shares’ performance in the monthly chart.
The uncertainty is reinforced by both the fact that First Solar missed analyst forecasts in its two most recent filings and the lack of a clear pattern in the wake of these reports.
In late October, FSLR stock suffered a substantial drop in the days following the earnings announcement, while in February, there was a rapid rally followed by a continuation of the then-prevailing downtrend.
Featured image via Shutterstock
