Summary:
⚈ Similar last-hour rallies in MSFT and META sparked insider trading concerns.
⚈ It’s the second suspicious pre-news market move observed in April 2025.
Suspicions about stock market foul play have been rampant in recent weeks due to multiple strange moves observable in the intraday performance of benchmark indices such as the S&P 500.
Although the suspicions were initially raised by politicians, the latest suspicions came from elsewhere as the S&P 500 enjoyed a surprise, end-of-session rally late on April 30 – shortly before Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) unveiled what proved to be particularly strong earnings.
Wednesday’s trading began with a decline from the April 29 closing S&P 500 level of 5,560.83 points to daily lows of 5,435.66. Soon after, and despite the U.S. recording a first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) contraction, a rally began and accelerated sharply in the final hour.
Does this strange rally signal rampant insider trading?
The S&P 500 rallied to approximately 5,515 points in a slow climb that took most of the session, only to suddenly jump more than 50 points about an hour before the closing bell and ultimately end the day at 5,569.0, closing 0.15% higher.
The intraday move is suspicious, as it appeared to lack a clear catalyst and preceded two exceptionally strong earnings reports.
Examining the daily price charts, both stocks showed a similar, though not identical, intraday pattern to the S&P 500.
MSFT stock and META shares suffered a fall to day’s lows immediately after trading started on Wednesday, enjoyed a slow and partial recovery through the session, and made a sudden upward curve in the final hour of the market day.
That final curve can be seen as suspicious, as both companies went on to issue earnings that enabled them to rally more than 9% and more than 6% in the extended session. While bullish bets ahead of quarterly reports are not uncommon, an apparent lack of significant volatility through the day is curious when juxtaposed.
The April 30 move is additionally curious as it is the second such apparent anomaly in less than a month. A strange, brief rally occurred just ahead of the tariff pause announcement on April 9, and a bloc of Democratic lawmakers implied that many of their colleagues had benefited from insider trading.
Lastly, it is worth noting that, despite the allegations and strange movements, the stock market has been moving both strangely and with major instability in 2025. As is frequently said, correlation does not equate causation, and suspicions are not the same as confirmation.
Featured image via Shutterstock
