A Wall Street analyst is projecting a massive 120% rise in Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price in anticipation of favorable policies from the upcoming Donald Trump administration.
This outlook comes as TSLA’s share price continues to notch new highs—a momentum established in the wake of Trump’s victory, whose campaign saw significant involvement from Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
At press time, electric vehicle (EV) stock was trading at $476, rising 2.7% in the past 24 hours. Over the past month, Tesla stock has yielded a 40% return, while year-to-date, the equity rallied 91%.
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Tesla’s stock price raise
Now, Mizuho Securities analysts see a continuation of the current rally, setting a price target of $515 from $230—a 123% upside.
The bullish outlook stems from key growth drivers, including favorable shifts in autonomous driving regulations, new policies under the Trump administration that could lower Tesla’s EV costs relative to competitors, and a promising product pipeline featuring the Model Q and Cybercab by 2026 to 2027.
Mizuho also values Tesla at $1.8 trillion through a sum-of-the-parts approach, with $711 billion attributed to core businesses, $614 billion to the highly anticipated full self-driving technology and Robotaxi opportunities (with upside potential to $896 billion), and $472 billion to humanoid robotics (with upside potential to $740 billion).
Although the analysts acknowledged the Texas firm faces challenges such as European tariffs and potential U.S. EV credit changes, Tesla’s innovative roadmap and market positioning are expected to drive transformative growth.
Moreover, Mizuho’s outlook aligns with that of Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who raised his Tesla price target from $400 to $515, projecting a market cap of $2 trillion by 2025, up from $1.5 trillion.
Ives cited the $1 trillion potential in AI and autonomous vehicles, alongside bullish policy tailwinds from a Trump administration expected to accelerate autonomous driving initiatives. Eased reporting requirements for system crashes further bolster Tesla’s growth prospects.
“Raising price target on Tesla to $515 as we believe the Trump White House will be a “total game changer” for the autonomous and AI story for Tesla and Musk over the coming years. Bull case is $650 for 2025,” Ives said.
Tesla’s stock cautious outlook
Not all analysts, however, are fully convinced about Tesla’s sustained growth, especially given the stock’s rally following Trump’s election.
For instance, Truist Securities analyst William Stein raised Tesla’s price target by 50%, from $238 to $360, with a ‘Hold’ rating. Stein attributed much of Tesla’s recent gains to Musk’s anticipated influence in the incoming administration rather than strong near-term earnings prospects.
However, Stein noted potential future upsides from a political climate that favors initiatives like Robotaxi and self-driving technology, leaving room for the company’s flagship projects to benefit from more lenient policies.
GLG Research analyst Gordon Johnson has also questioned the sustainability of Tesla’s stock rally, linking the post-Q3 earnings surge to an options gamma squeeze rather than stronger fundamentals.
While factors such as President-elect Trump’s win and Musk’s ties to the administration have been cited, Johnson emphasized the role of surging call option demand—driven by weekly and 0DTE (zero days to expiry) products—which forced market makers to buy Tesla stock, driving up its price.
The analyst warned that the rally might be unsustainable. Rising options trading costs, with implied volatility in 1-month 25-delta call options at 71.5%, could dampen retail and hedge fund-driven momentum.
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