Gold’s record-setting surge in 2025 may be signaling a shifting tide across global markets, one that favors the U.S. Treasury bonds over equities.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, the improving performance of long-term Treasuries, represented by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), could be a direct beneficiary of gold’s strength, he said in an X post on October 14. 

To this end, Bloomberg Intelligence data shows TLT steadily appreciating through 2025, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has struggled to sustain gains. 

The S&P 500’s 90-day volatility index, after remaining unusually low for most of the year, has begun to rise, suggesting that calm conditions in the equity market may be giving way to renewed turbulence.

“Rising Gold May Buoy Bonds vs. Stocks Gradually, then suddenly may describe the improving performance of US Treasury bonds vs. a potentially waning stock market in 2025,” McGlone said. 

McGlone’s analysis frames this as part of a broader shift where gold’s ascent aligns with bond market resilience. 

Stock market stretched 

As equity valuations appear stretched and economic growth moderates, investors have increasingly turned to Treasuries as a defensive asset. This trend is reinforced by the normalization of market volatility, which historically favors bonds over risk assets.

Notably, while TLT’s total return index has advanced throughout the year, the S&P 500’s returns have flattened, and volatility has started to climb, conditions that often precede multi-year cycles where bonds outperform stocks.

Meanwhile, gold continues to trade at new record highs, reaching the $4,100 mark and gaining over 50% year to date. 

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