Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) faces a critical test against gold that could shape investor flows for the remainder of 2025.
He pointed to a key ratio comparing Bitcoin’s value to gold, showing the world’s largest cryptocurrency hovering around 35 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, a level that previously marked the 2021 peak.
In an X post on August 16, McGlone cautioned that if Bitcoin fails to hold above this threshold, it may trigger a shift in capital toward U.S. Treasuries as the “next big trade.”
“If the first-born crypto in 2009 — now with about 19-million minions — backs down from roughly 35 ounces of the rock on Aug. 15, it may signal T-bonds as the NBT,” he said.
He suggested that Bitcoin’s inability to defend the level could cement Treasuries as the preferred haven, with yields potentially sliding toward 1.75%, mirroring a trajectory seen in China.
McGlone’s analysis indicated that BTC’s performance relative to both gold and the S&P 500 has surged in recent years but now sits at a crossroads.
To this end, he noted that the Bitcoin-to-S&P 500 ratio currently hovers around 18.3, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s resilience against equities. However, the gold threshold appears to be the more decisive marker for long-term positioning.
Stalled Bitcoin and gold ratio
On August 15, McGlone stated that the stalled Bitcoin-to-gold ratio sits at a key juncture, poised to either catch up with record U.S. stocks or signal a broader risk-asset reversion heading into late 2025.
Notably, Bitcoin’s stalled gains against gold highlight uncertainty over digital assets’ resilience amid inflation, central bank policy, and geopolitical risks. McGlone suggested a breakout would signal renewed confidence in risk assets, while stagnation could foreshadow pullbacks in equities and crypto.
Meanwhile, both Bitcoin and gold have enjoyed an impressive run in 2025. Gold, at one point, targeted an all-time high of $4,000, while Bitcoin recently surged past $124,000, marking a new record. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $118,266, maintaining its position well above the $100,000 level.
Featured image via Shutterstock
