The share price of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is entering what has historically been its most challenging period of the year.
According to 15 years of seasonality data, August through October have consistently delivered some of the weakest returns for the electric vehicle stock, with only 46%, 40%, and 33% of those months showing positive performance, respectively, according to charting platform TrendSpider.
This seasonal slump coincides with broader investor concerns following Tesla’s disappointing second-quarter earnings, capping a tough 2025 so far, as sales have plunged amid backlash against CEO Elon Musk over his political stance.
At press time, TSLA shares were valued at $302.63, down 1.8% on the day and 20% year-to-date.
Beyond market-wide pressure, bearish sentiment has been compounded by the company’s Q2 2025 results.
Tesla reported $22.5 billion in revenue for the quarter, marking a 12% year-over-year decline. Net income dropped 16% to $1.17 billion as the company struggled with shrinking margins and weakening demand, particularly in North America and China.
Earnings per share came in at $0.40, missing the $0.43 Wall Street had anticipated. Vehicle deliveries also declined, with Tesla moving 384,122 units in the quarter, a 14% drop compared to Q2 2024.
Wall Street bullish on TSLA stock price
Despite the weak outlook, Wall Street analysts remain divided. According to TipRanks, based on 37 analyst forecasts, the average 12-month price target for Tesla stands at $310.84, just 2.7% above current levels.
However, expectations vary widely, with the most bullish projection at $500 and the most bearish at just $19.05.
As things stand, investors should brace for the possibility that TSLA could slide further, potentially toward the psychological $200 level.
Indeed, Tesla cannot rely solely on seasonal strength in November to recover; the company must also work to reassure investors by tackling rising Chinese EV competition and accelerating the rollout of its robotaxi services in major U.S. cities.
Featured image via Shutterstock
