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Tesla stock falls to 10-month lows; how low can TSLA drop?

Tesla stock falls to 10-month lows; how low can TSLA drop?

Given the frightening accident – and even more frightening revelations that emerged from it  – accompanied by the still-fresh memories of an even worse disaster only years earlier, one would expect Boeing (NYSE: BA) to be the worst-performing major American stock of 2024.

This, however, is not the case, and out of all S&P 500 companies, Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) holds the dubious honor as it is, at press time, more than 30% in the red since January 1.

To make matters worse, several analysts’ updated forecasts are now estimating that TSLA stock is more likely to continue its decline than recover in 2024.

How low can Tesla stock drop?

Despite the dire state of the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) industry – Chinese EV stocks have recently been doing comparatively well – analysts have remained mostly bullish toward the companies in the sector for a rarely long time.

This has started to change recently, and Tesla is only the latest in the string of companies to have suffered from downgrades assigned by prominent experts and major firms.

On March 13, for example, the banking giant Wells Fargo downgraded Tesla from “equal weight” to “underweight” and reduced its price target from $200 to $125. Additionally, Wells Fargo also estimated that TSLA stock’s fall might not end at $125 but that it may find itself as low as $44 before the year is over, should the crisis deepen.

On the same day, UBS also downgraded Tesla’s stock price target to $165.

Despite the forecast being exceptionally bearish, some experts believe Tesla might go even lower in the coming months. Earlier in 2024, Gordon Johnson, the founder and CEO of GLJ research, estimated Tesla would fall to $23.53 partially following the argument that Elon Musk’s EV maker is priced like a big tech stock while it is, in fact, a fairly regular car company.

Is a Tesla stock collapse guaranteed?

While Tesla has been struggling with production issues, reportedly lacking quality of its Cybertruck, decreasing demand, and ever-stronger competition, there is still a significant silver lining for the company.

One of its strongest figures for 2023 was its deliveries report. Tesla logged a new record for vehicles delivered at approximately $1.8 million – about 500,000 more than in 2022.

Furthermore, Wedbush’s Dan Ives believes that, despite the slow first quarter, Tesla is well-positioned for an overall strong 2024 and could still deliver more than 2 million vehicles before the year is out – and see its market capitalization surge above $1 trillion.

Tesla stock price chart

While the forecasts for Tesla’s future in 2024 are mixed, its stock market past is overwhelmingly dark in the year. Since January, TSLA shares declined as much as 31.78% and while early February brought some reprieve, the stabilization didn’t hold, and the EV maker declined 10.19% on the 30-day chart.

TSLA YTD stock price chart. Source: Finbold

The latest full trading day – Wednesday, March 13 – has been particularly bad for Tesla shares as they – largely driven by the downgrades – fell significantly through the session and ended 4.54% in the red at $169.48.

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