A cynic would look at Elon Musk’s April 5 tweet announcing the ‘Robotaxi’ event and at Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price at the time and conclude the post was an ill-conceived marketing ploy, not too dissimilar to how the Twitter acquisition played out.
In fact, following an upturn in February, TSLA shares collapsed from over $202 to under $165 just ahead of the announcement, and Musk’s post triggered another small rally that sent them back up toward $177 before a more decisive plummet on April 10.
Though it remains impossible to know whether that was the scenario or if the X post resulted from a long and carefully planned presentation plan, it appears that, by October 15, 2024, ‘We, Robot’ may have been more trouble than it was worth.
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Furthermore, since the event, such an assessment appears to have only grown more plausible as Tesla’s ‘Optimus’ robots – prominently featured at the presentation – appear to have been little more than remote-controlled animatronics.
The allegations, however, remain relatively unconfirmed, and the only element that appears certain is that the robots’ supposed voices were the voices of humans controlling them in some capacity.
Analysts voice their disappointment in ‘We, Robot’
Whatever the full extent of the smoke and mirrors, the revelation bodes ill for Tesla and is likely to contribute to the somewhat unexpected downward pressure TSLA stock experienced following the event.
Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE: MS) Adam Jones notably voiced disappointment in the wake of ‘We, Robot,’ lamenting a lack of detail in the presentation. Indeed, Jones explained that Tesla failed to provide any substantial updates on the progress of artificial intelligence (AI) and self-driving technology.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Piper Sandler, and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) also assessed the ‘Robotaxi’ event as ‘all filler, no killer.’
Investors demonstrated their disappointment by selling TSLA shares. The stock collapsed approximately 10% in the extended session between ‘We, Robot’ and the subsequent market open, and it remains 9.51% down in the last five days at $218.43.
Analysts overwhelmingly reiterate previous Tesla stock forecasts
Despite what the comments on the event might suggest, ‘We, Robot’ had relatively little impact on Tesla’s long-term predictions. Indeed, despite voicing his disappointment, Adam Jones maintained his ‘buy’ rating for TSLA and lowered his price target to the still-bullish $310.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) likewise remained bullish, albeit with a significantly lower $255 forecast.
Other analysts, Wedbush’s Dan Ives perhaps being the most notable, have remained entirely positive about Tesla and the ‘Robotaxi.’ Indeed, as TSLA stock was reeling in the market, Ives remained adamant the event was anything but a disappointment and that it set the important groundwork for the future of AI.
The Wedbush analyst did concede ‘We, Robot’ was light on the details.
Could the ‘Optimus’ revelation trigger broader Tesla stock sell-off?
Finally, the ‘Optimus’ revelations, depending on how far the remote control went, could profoundly alter the consensus on Tesla.
Though the robot was never the focus of the ‘Robotaxi’ event, the fact that humans controlled it, at least in part, raises uncomfortable questions about how autonomous the autonomous cab and the ‘Robovan’ were.
Arguments predating the event that Tesla’s approach, which excludes technology like Lidar or Radar, makes true self-driving effectively impossible only deepen the concerns.
The electric vehicle (EV) maker’s history of making promises and either under or not delivering does not help the situation either.
The bearish factors combined ultimately weaken the argument for Tesla as the most ‘undervalued AI name in the market,’ as Dan Ives put it, and bolster the notion it is just another car company and may deserve a valuation akin to other major car manufacturers.
Still, the actual, long-term effects of ‘We, Robot’ will only become truly evident in the long term, with Tesla’s future mostly depending on its upcoming actions, including, for example, the promised commercial availability of ‘Optimus’ in 2025.
