Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) investors betting on a future SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) acquisition as a catalyst for the electric vehicle maker are relying on the “Greater Fool Theory,” according to investment manager Gary Black.
The Future Fund managing partner, in an X post on July 27, pushed back against speculation that SpaceX could eventually acquire Tesla, arguing that such a deal would make little financial sense for SpaceX shareholders given the significant dilution it would entail.
Black said investors should own Tesla based on its core business prospects, including autonomous driving, vehicle demand, and earnings growth, rather than expectations of a SpaceX rescue.
His comments come as both Tesla and SpaceX face mounting pressure in 2026, with their stocks significantly underperforming broader market benchmarks.
Black’s criticism centers on the belief among some Tesla shareholders that SpaceX could acquire the company at a premium valuation.
He argued that such a deal would likely require SpaceX to pay a substantial premium, creating significant dilution for its shareholders.
The combined company would also likely trade closer to Tesla’s lower valuation multiple, reducing the benefits of SpaceX’s premium valuation.
SpaceX-Tesla lack of fundamentals
As a result, Black views the Tesla-SpaceX rescue thesis as a speculative investment case rather than one supported by fundamentals.
Instead, he believes investors should focus on the rollout of unsupervised Full Self-Driving technology, the pace of autonomy adoption, and their potential impact on future earnings.
Supporters of a potential deal cite growing ties between the companies, including AI infrastructure projects, Starlink integration in Tesla vehicles, and shared engineering resources.
At the same time, Musk recently acknowledged the increasing overlap but stopped short of endorsing a merger, noting that any transaction would require proper governance and shareholder approval.
While analysts and prediction markets have assigned varying odds to a deal, Black argues that dilution concerns and fiduciary obligations make it difficult to justify at current valuations.
Tesla and SpaceX stock price struggles
Notably, Tesla shares have struggled throughout 2026 despite reporting record second-quarter revenue. As of press time, TSLA stock was trading at $309, down more than 30% year-to-date and nearing 52-week lows.
Tesla posted record Q2 revenue of $28.2 billion, up 26% year-over-year, while vehicle deliveries rose 25% to 480,126 units.
However, investors focused on weaker profitability, with adjusted earnings missing expectations, operating margins shrinking to about 1.4%, and free cash flow turning negative amid heavy spending on AI, autonomy, robotics, and manufacturing expansion.
Concerns have also grown over the pace of Robotaxi and Optimus commercialization.
SpaceX has also come under pressure despite strong operational progress. Since its record June IPO, the stock has fallen roughly 50% from highs near $226 to about $113.50, reducing its market capitalization from peak levels, though it still stands near $1.5 trillion.
While Starlink growth, frequent launches, and Starship milestones remain positives, heavy investment in space infrastructure and AI initiatives has weighed on profitability.
