At the close of last year, most Wall Street analysts were quite optimistic regarding the S&P 500’s future prospects. Although most did not forecast that 2025 would be the banner year that its predecessor was, a significant degree of upside was still expected.
Although it might seem like purely wishful thinking right now, before the current pullback, the target for the benchmark index was 7,100.
For reference, the S&P 500 is currently at 5,074, having marked an 8.06% decline on the weekly chart, which has brought year-to-date (YTD) losses up to 13.73%. That 7,100 figure would equate to a 39.92% upward move from current levels.
It comes as little surprise that Wall Street analysts have issued much more bearish coverage regarding the leading index as of late. In the past couple of days, analysts from major firms have put forward new price targets — let’s take a closer look at their revised predictions.
Wall Street forecasts S&P 500 outlook
JPMorgan issued the most striking cut, reducing its target from 6,500 to 5,200. That’s a 20% cut — and if met, the finance titan’s target would represent a mere 2.48% rally from current levels. Moreover, JPM analysts have also outlined a worst-case scenario in which the benchmark index falls to levels as low as 4,000 — which would equate to another 21.16% drop for the S&P 500.
Oppenheimer’s chief strategist, John Stoltzfus, set the Street-high target of 7,100 that we discussed earlier. He remains the biggest bull on the Street, as his revised outlook sees the index closing the year at 5,900, some 16.27% higher than Friday’s close. This new figure represents a 16.90% cut compared to Stoltzfus’s previous target.
Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI derivative and quantitative strategist, has cut his forecast from 6,800 to 5,800. The 1,000-point cut in his year-end S&P 500 prediction represents a 14.70% reduction, and his new target, if met, would correspond to a 14.3% rally from current levels.
Bank of America previously set its target at an ominous 6,666 — and has now replaced it with a more ominous 5,600. BofA’s revised forecast is 15.99% lower and implies a 10.36% upside.
Last but not least is Morgan Stanley. The banking giant was ahead of the curve — having cut its forecast for the index to 5,500 back in March. However, the firm’s analysts have recently revised their outlook and now predict that a decline to 4,700, some 7.37% below current levels, and 14.54% below the prior estimate, is quite possible for the S&P 500.
By how much have Wall Street firms slashed their S&P 500 outlooks for 2025?
On average, the institutions we’ve covered in this article have reduced their targets for the S&P 500 by a rather staggering 16.4%.
Although this is an incomplete sample, with this revised coverage in mind, we come to an average target that corresponds to a 7.2% upside for the benchmark index for 2025 — far below prior estimates.
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