By Wednesday, September 16, a relatively obscure political prediction market on Polymarket highlighted the risks of entering a position too early, and many traders are now all but guaranteed to lose money on their bets.
Specifically, a market titled ‘Next Prime Minister of Serbia?’ was created well in advance of the snap election being called and features multiple candidates with ‘yes’ odds at or above 1% that, in reality, have no chance of seeing a ‘yes’ resolution.
Indeed, among the six individuals that, at press time, have odds of 1% or higher, only two have a credible chance of resolving ‘yes’: the candidate of the ‘catch-all’ opposition list Student List, Ilija Srdanović, and of the government United Serbia list, President Aleksandar Vučić.
Meanwhile, Vladan Đokić – the Rector of the University of Belgrade who was long suspected to be the Student List candidate for the Prime Minister with $5,356 in volume – and Ana Brnabić – incumbent President of the National Assembly, former Prime Minister, and member of the ruling SNS party, with a volume of $13,463 – are officially not participating in the race.
The situation for those who wagered on Ana Brnabić is arguably especially bad since her odds were estimated as high as 38% as recently as July.
Is the next Prime Minister of Serbia already known?
Elsewhere, despite the elections expected to be hotly contested, a disclaimer regarding the resolution of the market appears to indicate that the winner can be predicted already in mid-September with nearly 100% certainty:
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Since the current ruling party of Serbia – SNS – took power in 2012, the country has reportedly been experiencing substantial democratic backsliding and is, by 2026, frequently described as an electoral autocracy.
Under the circumstances, opposition circles in the country widely expect the current President Vučić to declare victory regardless of the actual count. Similarly, history indicates there are significant odds of national institutions confirming the claim.
For example, the 2023 parliamentary election in the country was both contested and disputed, with internal observers and opposition parties claiming organized voter suppression and other forms of electoral fraud, and the European Parliament also warning that the contest was substantially irregular.
Additionally, recent developments in the country underline the risks of an even higher degree of attempts at voter suppression and other forms of government repression.
Why the Serbian election prediction market will remain tense throughout
The 2026 snap elections in Serbia come nearly two years after a fatal canopy collapse in Novi Sad left 16 people dead, sparking widespread and student-led protests against government corruption.
This period witnessed the largest protest in the history of the country and mass grassroots mobilization, but also a significant increase in, at best, regime-excused violence.
One example of the trend came in the form of vehicular ramming attacks conducted against protesters at 16-minute vigils for the dead of Novi Sad – a type of protest held daily in late 2024 and through much of 2025.
While there is little unambiguous confirmation that these were orchestrated by the ruling party, President Vučić publicly defended the attackers, framing their actions as little more than a reasonable exercise of the right to freedom of movement.
Similarly, a group of individuals emerged from ruling-party offices in Novi Sad early in 2025 and attacked student activists with baseball bats, breaking the jaw of one young woman. The incident proved to be the decisive trigger for the downfall of the SNS-led government of Miloš Vučević.
The attackers were pardoned several months later.
The likely lead-up to the prediction market resolution
Meanwhile, one incident might have recently become a repressive tool for the upcoming parliamentary contest.
Specifically, an incident at the March 15, 2025 protest in Belgrade led to accusations that the government employed some type of weapon – allegedly a sonic weapon – to trigger mass panic and, plausibly, a stampede that could turn into a mass casualty event.
Shortly after the snap election was called, the prosecutor’s office of Serbia announced that it found that no such weapon was used and that the incident was essentially faked. Authorities have also threatened to pursue anyone claiming a sonic weapon was used over spreading panic and misinformation.
Notably, Serbian security services allegedly overran hospitals shortly after the incident, demanding information about the citizens who sought medical attention. So far, independent examination of the incident has proved inconclusive.
Here’s why the 2026 Serbia election prediction market is far from resolved
Elsewhere, while betting on President Vučić as the next Prime Minister might appear as the safest bet, there remain multiple caveats.
To begin with, despite the prediction market’s stated trust in official reporting, the disclaimer also specifies that the PM must be officially sworn in as the Premier by the parliament for the market to be resolved.
Given that Serbia has been witnessing a wave of grassroots organization not seen in the current century so far and that the majority of opposition parties and movements rallied behind the Student List – which is, despite its name, composed of well-regarded professionals from a variety of fields – there may be significant changes between initial reporting on the outcome and the composition of the next assembly.
The top underrated prediction market plays for the 2026 Serbia elections
Finally, several high-risk, high-reward plays remain available with regard to the ‘Next Prime Minister of Serbia?’ prediction market.
President Aleksandar Vučić has been selected and confirmed as the candidate of the ruling party but is yet to resign – despite pledging to do so ‘within weeks’ as far back as June – leaving some room for unexpected turbulence near the October 25 election date.
Such eventualities would be most favorable for wagering on former PM Miloš Vučević, or President of the National Assembly of Serbia and former PM Ana Brnabić.
An even more interesting wild card play could be another former PM – Ivica Dačić.
Dačić has, over his long career, proven a resourceful politician after effectively inheriting the SPS from Slobodan Milošević.
Indeed, despite the party losing in a landslide at the tail end of the previous century, it was back as part of the government coalition already in 2008.
Additionally, despite a relatively decisive decline in the number of votes received, the SPS has remained part of the position throughout the previous 18 years.
Critically for the upcoming election, Dačić secured the role of the PM in 2012 thanks to receiving just enough votes to play ‘kingmaker.’
Considering SPS is running separately from SNS in 2026, a repeat of the political play is possible – and potentially lucrative, with Dačić sitting below 1% on Polymarket at press time – albeit not particularly likely.
Featured image via Shutterstock
