Banking giant HSBC has raised its Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) price target to $200 from $125, a 60% increase, while maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating.

The new target implies a 16% rally from the current price of $172. Notably, the American semiconductor giant is facing short-term losses, with shares down 1.6% on the day and nearly 4% over the past week.

HSBC’s revision reflects a larger-than-expected AI GPU total addressable market, driven by cloud service providers’ capex upgrades, up roughly 37% year to date. 

The bank also cited accelerating enterprise and sovereign AI demand and a more constructive outlook on China following the resumption of H20 licensing.

For 2QFY26, HSBC projects Nvidia will post sales of $46.7 billion, slightly above management’s $45 billion guidance and broadly in line with consensus at $46.3 billion. For 3QFY26, it expects $53.9 billion, also near the Street’s $53.3 billion estimate, momentum that HSBC does not believe will trigger significant upward revisions.

Risks from the Chinese market 

That said, the bank flagged several risks, particularly in China. These include uncertainty over the size of the AI GPU market, potential average selling price pressure from U.S. revenue-sharing requirements, and possible pushback against U.S. chips despite the reversal of H20 export restrictions.

“We believe China AI GPU [total addressable market] uncertainties remain and could disappoint the market, given lower ASP due to revenue sharing with the US administration, as well as a push back on using US chips from the Chinese authorities,” the bank said. 

In general, ahead of Nvidia’s August 27 earnings, analysts widely expect strong fiscal second-quarter results, but guidance for the October quarter may fall slightly below consensus as China revenue is unlikely to be included due to pending license approvals. 

Excluding China, Nvidia could be leaving $2–3 billion in potential near-term sales off its outlook, primarily from H20 and RTX6000D demand.

In parallel, KeyBanc raised its Nvidia price target to $215 from $190 with an ‘Overweight’ rating, while Susquehanna lifted its target to $210 from $180 and reiterated a positive stance.

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