A newly created Polymarket account has generated nearly $500,000 in just three days after correctly predicting the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran.
The wallet, identified as 0x1caA6a7ad0c6916, was registered in February 2026 and quickly built positions in several “Yes” contracts tied to U.S. strikes against Iran by specific late-February and early-March dates on Polymarket.
The trader concentrated heavily on the February 28 resolution, purchasing more than 560,000 shares at an average price of about $0.108 each, for roughly $60,000. Smaller but still substantial bets were placed on March 1 and earlier strike deadlines.
When the United States launched large-scale airstrikes on Iranian targets on February 28, those February 28 and March 1 positions resolved at $1 per share, delivering a profit of $493,512. The account’s all-time profit now stands at that exact figure, with the largest open position valued at over $560,000 following the resolution.
The speed and precision of the trader’s wagers have fueled speculation about possible insider knowledge. The account deposited an additional $30,000 roughly 10 hours before the strikes began and spread purchases across tightly clustered resolution dates, a pattern many observers describe as unusually confident for pure speculation.
Trading volume on Polymarket contracts tied to Iran exceeded $529 million in the days leading up to the attack, while several other newly created accounts also posted six- and seven-figure gains on similarly timed bets.
Possible insider trading on Iran strikes
Comparable cases have emerged around the same events. For instance, one trader earned $553,000 by betting that Ali Khamenei would be removed from power shortly before the Iranian government confirmed his death.
Analytics tracking identified at least six accounts that collectively profited about $1.2 million by concentrating on the February 28 strike window, with large transfers arriving on the platform in the final hours before the operation began.
Critics argue that the platform’s pseudonymous structure and lack of mandatory identity verification create openings for the misuse of classified or privileged information.
Supporters counter that such markets offer real-time, crowd-sourced signals and have, at times, outperformed traditional intelligence assessments.
The strikes, coordinated with Israel and named ‘Operation Epic Fury’ by U.S. officials, targeted Iranian military leadership, nuclear-related facilities, and missile sites.
The operation resulted in the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered immediate Iranian counterstrikes against American bases and allied installations across the Gulf.
By March 2, the conflict had escalated sharply, with reports of explosions in Tehran, Dubai, and other cities, and major disruptions to oil shipping lanes.
Featured image via Shutterstock
