Gold’s ongoing momentum could soon find an additional catalyst from the looming government shutdown, potentially pushing prices near the $4,000 spot.
As of press time, the yellow metal was trading at $3,815, having rallied over 45% in 2025.
This momentum comes as concerns over fiscal deficits and unsustainable government spending intensify market uncertainty, weakening the dollar and increasing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Notably, the metal could gain further momentum if the U.S. government enters a shutdown, with both sides of the aisle failing to reach a decision.
In Washington, President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders have made little progress in negotiations to prevent a shutdown.
Therefore, a partial closure would suspend critical economic data releases, including the monthly employment report. This lack of timely information could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to assess the economy, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, further boosting its appeal to investors.
Experts take on gold
At the same time, experts have weighed in on the potential impact of the shutdown on gold. For instance, Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, noted that the budget impasse reflects longer-term concerns over fiscal deficits and unsustainable government spending.
On the other hand, Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, noted that while stock markets have weathered the shutdown risk, gold is already reflecting investor concern.
“Although stock markets have absorbed this shutdown risk well, and futures point to a higher open for US indices later today, concern about a government shutdown is being expressed via the gold price,” Brooks said.
Meanwhile, the gold target of $4,000 has also been cited by several analysts. Banking giant UBS noted on September 30 that the metal could rise to $4,200 by mid-2026, citing the safe-haven status amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Interestingly, as reported by Finbold, some analysts suggest that gold’s record-breaking price might be signaling troubling times for other asset classes, such as stocks.
Featured image via Shutterstock
