While much has been said about big tech and big oil as sectors likely to see major benefits from the second Trump administration, the private prison industry – sometimes referred to as the prison-industrial complex – has been, in many ways, leading the stock market charge since November 2024.
Perhaps the most decisive winner of the rally, at least by January 23, has been Geo Group (NYSE: GEO), whose stock soared approximately 142% since the election and is up 22.43% year-to-date (YTD).
One reason why GEO shares have, with their press time price of $34.26, soared above their 2017 highs is the new administration’s immigration policy.
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Why Geo stock is soaring
Specifically, Donald Trump promised to initiate mass deportations – a move many expect will lead to the construction of numerous new camps – and has already partially revoked the ‘right of soil’ (jus soli) along with several other measures.
For its part, as a major investor in private prisons, mental health care institutions, and other punitive and correctional institutions, Geo Group has immigration detention centers within its portfolio, meaning it is set to benefit directly from the new policy.
Furthermore, along with the likely government funds that would help boost Geo Group’s revenue, the provisions of the 13th Amendment allowing for indentured servitude as punishment remains in place in many U.S. states, meaning private prison companies will also benefit from an upsurge in cheap labor of dubious voluntariness.
Perhaps the biggest recent usage of such labor stems from the California wildfires – a state that recently and overwhelmingly voted to keep indentured servitude. Specifically, approximately 30% of the state’s firefighters are inmates.
GEO stock expected to continue rising in 2025
Looking at GEO stock’s overall rating, it also becomes apparent that investors are not the only ones expecting strong performance and a substantial upside in the coming 12 months.
Geo Group’s shares are, for example, rated as a ‘moderate buy’ on average on the stock analysis platform TipRanks, per the data retrieved on January 23. The average price target is likewise high, considering the rally in the last three months, as it forecasts a 20.82% rise to $41.50 in the coming 52 weeks.
However, it is worth pointing out that only four analyst firms revised their predictions since early October and that Wedbush was the only one to do so in 2025.
Featured image via Shutterstock
