Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) will likely trade above $100,000 by the end of 2026.
The executive noted that BTC could reach around $125,000 by year-end 2026, just shy of its previous record high of $126,000, he said at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference in Las Vegas.
Hayes attributed Bitcoin’s recent pullback to a credit contraction driven by AI-related job losses, which have weighed on consumer spending and tightened financial conditions.
However, since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in February, market sentiment has shifted from concerns about an AI slowdown to expectations of wartime inflation, helping Bitcoin outperform the Nasdaq.
He added that wartime inflation typically boosts demand for hard assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement, supporting a rebound.
At the same time, the executive also downplayed the impact of a hawkish Federal Reserve, arguing that tightening has a limited effect on real liquidity.
Instead, he pointed to April’s easing of bank rules, including changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR), which could unlock about $1.3 trillion in lending.
Combined with increased defense spending, he said this liquidity could offset AI-driven weakness and support risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Hayes bullish Bitcoin calls
While the Las Vegas forecast reflects Hayes’ latest near-term outlook, he has shared a range of more bullish projections throughout 2026. In some appearances, he has pointed to $145,000 by year-end, citing expansion in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and increased bank-driven money creation.
In more aggressive interviews, he has outlined a $500,000 target by the end of 2026, assuming stronger central bank liquidity.
Earlier in the year, Hayes maintained a base case of $250,000, while warning that Bitcoin could dip below $60,000 before advancing. For the broader cycle into 2026 and 2027, which he views as a peak period of monetary expansion, he has projected a range between $500,000 and $750,000.
Overall, Hayes remains one of Bitcoin’s most vocal bulls, arguing it serves as a hedge against fiat debasement, inflation, and geopolitical risk, and noting that much of his personal wealth is held in the asset.
However, such forecasts remain highly speculative, hinging on macroeconomic conditions, central bank policy, and global developments, with Bitcoin historically exhibiting significant volatility.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $76,343, down 1.6% on the day, but still up 0.5% on the weekly timeframe.
