Justin Bons, founder of Cyber Capital, a cryptocurrency investment firm, has warned that the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) collapsing in the coming years remain high.
Bons pointed to diminishing block rewards, which are set to fall to 0.39 Bitcoin by 2036 under the current halving schedule.
At today’s prices, this would translate to an annual security budget of roughly $2.3 billion, an amount he deems insufficient to protect a network with a potential market cap in the trillions, he said in an X post on August 17.
This decline, he argued, could make it economically feasible for attackers to launch 51% attacks, enabling them to manipulate transactions and undermine trust in the system.
The cryptocurrency researcher also highlighted the limitations of Bitcoin’s current governance structure. He contends that the Bitcoin Core development team, which controls key updates, has resisted increasing block sizes or allowing inflation beyond the 21 million coin cap.
This rigidity, dating back to the 2015–2017 block size debates, could trigger a chain split or inflation, destabilizing the network. Bons also warned that advances in quantum computing may crack Bitcoin’s cryptographic protections, particularly in older wallets.
Therefore, this combination of internal economic weaknesses and external technological risks forms the basis of his 7 to 11-year collapse timeline.
Quantum computing threat
It is worth noting that while Bons warns of Bitcoin’s collapse, citing several factors, much of the general debate centers on the potential impact of quantum computers, with experts divided on the timeline. As reported by Finbold, most agree that quantum computing will inevitably threaten Bitcoin, but differ on when.
For example, Google’s Craig Gidney sees a risk window between 2030 and 2035, while Blockstream’s Adam Back believes it’s at least two decades away.
Others, such as Naoris Protocol’s David Carvalho and investor Chamath Palihapitiya, caution it could happen within five years, putting as much as 30% of all coins at risk.
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