Although the latest cryptocurrency market bloodbath appears to have, for the time being, halted and even retraced somewhat with Bitcoin’s (BTC) rising 5.64% from its February 2 low near $74,000 to its press time price of $78,173 on February 3, one analyst believes the worst is yet to come.
Specifically, the popular on-chain expert, Ali Martinez, published an X article on February 3 explaining that a reliable bearish pattern for BTC has once again emerged.
Why Bitcoin price is set to crash by April
According to the blockchain analyst, whenever Bitcoin falls below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), it fails to recover in the short term and instead plunges further and toward its 200-week SMA.
At press time on February 3, BTC’s 100-week SMA stands at $87,500 – approximately $10,000 above the cryptocurrency’s price – and the 200-week SMA is 26.325 below the digital asset’s Tuesday price at $57,600.
Considering the historical patterns, Ali Martinez concluded that Bitcoin is now likely aiming at a zone between $50,000 and $56,000 – 36.04% and 28.36% below the press time level of $78,173 – and that BTC will hit the target either in March or, at the latest, in April.
Lastly, the analyst provided several historical examples backing both the forecast and the timeline.
He identified the 35-day-long 55% drop of 2014, the 28-day 45% drop in late 2018, the one-week 47% COVID-era correction, and the 58%, 49-day crash of 2022 as key examples of the pattern that has once again taken hold in the cryptocurrency market.
Crypto analyst predicts a deeper Bitcoin price downturn later in 2026
Notably, Martinez’s latest prediction is consistent with his previous long-term bearish forecast for the world’s premier cryptocurrency for 2026.
On January 12, the on-chain analyst noted that Bitcoin has historically taken 1,064 days to make the move from a previous market bottom to the next market top, and then another 364 days – just a day short of a year – to retrace to the next bottom.
Considering BTC has been on a decline since hitting its latest all-time high (ATH) near $125,000 in early October 2025, Ali Martinez explained he expects the digital asset to reach the coming cycle low – identified in the range between $38,000 and $50,000 – early in the tenth month of 2026.
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