Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) could fall to $107 by the end of 2026, according to a trading expert who believes the stock’s current bear cycle is not yet complete despite the company’s strong fundamentals.
The forecast, shared by TradingShot in a TradingView post on August 24, comes as PLTR shares closed the latest session down more than 2% at about $175. If the target is reached, it would represent a decline of nearly 40% from current levels.
The projection is based on technical patterns that mirror Palantir’s 2022 decline and suggest a new downward channel could develop in the coming months.
According to the analysis, Palantir’s current correction resembles the 2022 bear cycle that followed a major rally. TradingShot noted that the ongoing downturn began after the stock reached an all-time high on November 3, 2025.
The analyst also highlighted Palantir’s inability to sustain upward momentum despite a strong August rally fueled by better-than-expected earnings.
After surging on its latest results, PLTR has traded sideways for several weeks, a pattern that can signal weakening buying pressure and renewed selling.
PLTR stock MA signal
A key bearish signal in the analysis is a daily moving average death cross, where shorter-term averages fall below longer-term ones. TradingShot noted that the current setup closely resembles the lower-high pattern seen in August 2022 before Palantir bottomed later that year.
Based on this structure, the stock could enter a new channel-down pattern, potentially falling toward a buy zone near $107 by year-end. The level aligns with Palantir’s 200-week moving average, a long-term support indicator that has historically marked major bottoms.
The analyst expects shares to stabilize around this area before a new bullish cycle begins. Confirmation would come from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forming higher lows, similar to the pattern that preceded the stock’s recovery in 2022.
In the near term, resistance remains around $180, while the broader trend points to lower highs and lower lows through the rest of 2026.
PLTR strong fundamentals
The bearish technical outlook comes despite exceptionally strong business performance from the American software company.
For instance, in the second quarter of 2026, Palantir reported revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% year over year, while U.S. commercial revenue surged 149%. The company also generated more than $1 billion in quarterly net income and maintained operating margins above 45%.
Management raised full-year guidance and now expects 2026 revenue of approximately $8.15 billion, representing annual growth of more than 80%. Palantir also ended the quarter with over $9 billion in cash and investments and no meaningful debt.
However, the stock continues to trade at elevated valuation multiples, reflecting investor enthusiasm for its artificial intelligence growth story.
TradingShot’s bearish outlook suggests that strong fundamentals alone may not prevent a deeper correction if technical conditions continue to weaken.
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