Summary
⚈ GDP shrank 0.3% in Q1, hurt by trade tariffs and slowing consumer spending.
⚈ Job growth stalls, with economists warning a recession may already be underway.
The odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 have surged past 70%, triggered by a string of troubling economic indicators.
Specifically, the probability now stands at 72%, marking a 20% increase over the past week and the highest reading of the year, according to the latest data retrieved by Finbold from market betting platform Polymarket on Wednesday, April 30.
This sharp rise follows government data showing the economy contracted for the first time since 2022.
GDP shrank at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, driven largely by a steep 41% jump in imports amid President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
The surge in imports dragged net exports down by nearly five percentage points. Meanwhile, consumer spending slowed to just 1.8%, its weakest pace since mid-2023, despite inventory growth temporarily boosting overall GDP by 2.25%.
Troubling jobs data adds to recession concern
At the same time, labor market signals have added to the gloom. Per data released today, private employers added 62,000 jobs in April, significantly below the 115,000 forecast and the slowest hiring pace since July 2024.
The report comes ahead of Friday’s official jobs data, which is expected to show 133,000 jobs added in April, down sharply from March’s 228,000.
Job openings have also declined, falling to 7.19 million in March, the lowest level since September 2024, and approaching lows not seen since the early days of the pandemic.
Key Wall Street figures also echo recessionary concerns. For instance, as reported by Finbold, JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that a mild recession is the best the U.S. can expect amid the ongoing trade war.
Similarly, top American economist Steve Hanke, who has given the odds of a 2025 recession at 90%, has cautioned that the uncertainty from trade tariffs has pushed the stock and financial markets into conditions resembling those that led to the 1930s Great Depression.
Interestingly, while some anticipate an economic downturn, others believe a recession is already underway. Economist David Rosenberg argues that the U.S. economy’s fate has already been sealed and estimates that about 60% of it is currently in recession.
Featured image via Shutterstock
