The likelihood of a U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving regulatory approval by the end of 2025 has surged to nearly 100%, with several applications now under review.
According to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the XRP spot ETF currently has a 95% chance of being approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
In an X post on July 1, the analysts highlighted that XRP now ranks among the top digital assets most likely to secure spot ETF approval this year, joining Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Major issuers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and Canary, have already filed applications for XRP ETFs, which the SEC formally acknowledged earlier in 2025.
The final SEC decision deadline for XRP’s spot ETF is set for October 10, 2025. The Commission currently classifies XRP as a commodity, a crucial regulatory status that significantly boosts its approval odds.
Impact of SEC case
However, some observers suggest the SEC may be waiting for the conclusion of its long-standing legal battle with Ripple before moving forward with an approval.
Both parties have shown interest in settling the case through a settlement. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also expressed a strong desire to bring the matter to a close.
For now, investors seeking exposure to a spot XRP ETF can look to Brazil and Canada, the only countries that have approved trading of such products.
However, these ETFs have had little impact on XRP’s price so far, mainly due to the relatively small size of their financial markets.
Meanwhile, other top crypto assets, such as Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), also have strong approval odds, each at 95%.
XRP price analysis
At press time, XRP was trading at $2.20, down 0.54% over the past 24 hours but up 0.75% on the weekly chart, consolidating within a familiar range.
For XRP to ignite a sustained bullish run toward the $3 mark, it must decisively break above the $2.20 support level. A potential spot ETF approval could serve as a major catalyst for such a move.
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