With Bitcoin (BTC) price having underperformed Gold (XAU) and the broader United States stock market in 2026, Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets research at VanEck, has made a bold prediction.
Bitcoin price could hit $160,000 if it reclaims its all-time high relative to gold, Sigel said. The prediction, analyzed by Finbold on May 12, is based on the BTC/XAU pair recovering to 35x, its previous peak, from its current level of 17.1x.
Sigel highlighted that Bitcoin is cheap, as it has not followed the broader U.S. stock market. Furthermore, the ratio of the U.S. stock market cap and the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) recently rebounded to an all-time high (ATH).
As such, Sigel suggested that BTC price could easily surge beyond his target, since the prediction is pegged on the flagship coin catching up to where equities are trading. Moreover, the broader U.S. stock market recently entered a price discovery phase, potentially signaling the onset of a macro bull rally.
Bitcoin price outlook
After attempting to mirror the U.S. stock market’s bull run over the past few weeks, BTC’s price has seen reduced uptrend momentum. Since getting rejected at around $82,290 on May 6, Bitcoin price has failed to break above this resistance level twice, trading at about $80,690 as of press time.
As such, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin price action is dependent heavily on cash inflows from institutional investors and the regulatory outlook in the United States. Furthermore, the passage of the Clarity Act, a proposed U.S. federal regulation aimed at legalizing crypto assets, could unlock the next wave of institutional validation of Bitcoin, according to Michael Saylor, chairman and cofounder of Strategy Inc. (MSTR).
