As the S&P 500 continues to trade at new highs, Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel has suggested that the index is likely to rise by about 33% by 2026.
As of press time, the index was valued at 6,727, up 0.19% for the day, while in 2025, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 50%.
According to Emanuel, the S&P 500 could climb to 9,000 by 2026 under a “bubble” scenario, compared with the firm’s base target of 7,750.
The probability of this high-end outcome has been raised to 30%, supported by signs of accelerating activity in capital markets following a major leveraged buyout.
“SPX YE 2026 PT of 7,750, and increased probability of a Bubble scenario to 9,000 to 30%, [is] reinforced by landmark EA LBO,” Evercore said.
Emanuel cited the recent acquisition of Electronic Arts (EA) as a key example, noting its similarity to landmark buyouts in 1988 and 2007, which triggered rapid market rallies but also increased short-term volatility.
He emphasized that the S&P 500 currently trades well above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling potential risks of a market pullback.
To manage this risk, Emanuel recommended that investors consider hedging strategies, such as Nasdaq put options.
Bullish sectors to watch
Despite the caution, he remains bullish on AI-related sectors and highlighted “underowned” healthcare stocks as a tactical opportunity amid easing policy and tariff concerns.
Notably, while Evercore projects a bullish outlook for the S&P 500, other Wall Street analysts remain divided.
As reported by Finbold, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees potential upside, projecting the index could rise to 7,200 by mid-2026, though he flagged risks from weak labor data and a potentially slow Fed response.
On the other hand, JPMorgan cautioned that equities may reassess valuations once Federal Reserve easing resumes, creating short-term downside risks.
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