Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) has had its stock outlook revised by Oppenheimer, with analyst Jason Helfstein maintaining a bullish stance despite the stock’s recent volatility.
In this line, Helfstein reiterated an ‘Outperform’ rating on Netflix while cutting his price target to $120 from $135, an 11.1% reduction. The new target still implies about 23% upside from the NFLX’s last closing price of $97.
The revision was driven by lower estimates, primarily reflecting a weaker-than-expected impact from recent U.S. price increases.
Second-quarter revenue growth is now projected to slow to around 12% year-over-year, or roughly 14% on a constant-currency basis, as Netflix navigates a shift in its business mix toward advertising and the timing of its ad cycle.
Advertising is playing a larger role, now driving about 60% of net additions while weighing on near-term revenue.
Helfstein, however, expects a stronger second half, supported by improving ad market conditions and a more robust content slate.
At the same time, he maintained his full-year 2026 assumptions, projecting roughly 13% revenue growth, driven by about 10% subscription growth and around $3 billion in advertising revenue.
The valuation continues to be based on a 30x multiple of the estimated 2027 earnings.
Near-term risks highlighted by the analyst include the timing and execution of the advertising cycle, particularly around September, as well as potential second-quarter pressure from developments at Warner Bros. Discovery.
Wall Street bullish on NFLX stock price
Overall, Wall Street sentiment toward Netflix remains firmly positive. Based on data from TipRanks, the stock carries a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus rating from 41 analysts, including 31 buy recommendations, 10 holds, and no sell ratings.
The average 12-month price target stands at $114.79, implying roughly 18% upside, with estimates ranging from $150 to $94.
Netflix stock fundamentals
Overall, Netflix stock has been volatile in 2026 despite strong fundamentals. For instance, shares fell nearly 10% following first-quarter results as cautious guidance and leadership changes weighed on investor sentiment.
The company reported revenue of $12.25 billion, up 16% You and slightly above expectations, while earnings per share nearly doubled to $1.23, supported by a $2.8 billion termination fee tied to a collapsed Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
Paid memberships exceeded 325 million, with strong uptake of the ad-supported tier, which now accounts for about 60% of new sign-ups. Advertising revenue is scaling rapidly and is on track to reach roughly $3 billion this year.
Still, Netflix maintained its full-year outlook of 12% to 14% revenue growth and a 31.5% operating margin, while second-quarter guidance came in softer due to higher content costs.
Uncertainty also increased after chairperson Reed Hastings said he would not seek re-election to the board in June.
Meanwhile, the company continues to expand into advertising innovation, gaming, live events, and international markets to sustain growth.
