Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has lagged its “Magnificent Seven” peers through most of 2025, but Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush Securities believes a rebound is on the horizon as the company enters what he calls its strongest upgrade cycle in years.
On September 22, Ives raised his Apple stock price target to $310 from $270, the highest on Wall Street, while maintaining an Outperform rating.
Ives explained that his firm is tracking shipping times and seeing particularly strong demand for iPhone 17 Pro models, both online and in retail stores in an interview with CNBC . He said that on a scale of one to ten, the cycle is already trending around an “8.5,” underpinned by 315 million iPhone users who have not upgraded in four years.
“The iPhone 16 was a disappointment,” Ives said, noting muted demand during its rollout. “That disappointment, combined with model changes this year, is fueling what the Street has been hoping for.”
iPhone Air could be the “surprise hit”
The biggest surprise, according to Ives, could be the iPhone 17 Air, which he believes is shaping up as the star of the show. “Three out of every ten customers in U.S. stores over the weekend were coming in specifically for the Air,” he observed. Early indicators suggest the Air’s combination of new features and lower price point could broaden the upgrade base, especially in North America.
Ives also pointed to strong early demand in Europe and noted that China remains untapped due to regulatory delays, meaning an additional boost is still to come once sales begin there. He now expects Apple to ship 240–250 million iPhones in the cycle, well ahead of the Street’s consensus of around 230 million units.
The optimism comes as Apple looks to regain momentum in the stock market. While peers like Nvidia and Microsoft have surged in 2025, Apple has trailed, weighed down by concerns over muted growth. Ives believes the iPhone 17 cycle could be the catalyst that pushes Apple back toward the $3 trillion market cap and sets the stage for renewed investor confidence.
Watch the full interview here:
