After a 600% rally, Wall Street is turning more cautious on Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock. Mizuho reiterated a ‘Hold’ rating on January 21 but assigned a relatively bullish $205 12-month price target for PLTR shares.
The 21.58% upside forecasted by the analysis firm’s Gregg Moskowitz is consistent with a slowdown in momentum. While Palantir is up 119% over the past year, gains have tapered recently, with the stock rising just 6.8% over the last six months.
Since the start of 2026, Palantir has slipped 5.13% to $168.62, showcasing both the extreme rally it had enjoyed previously and the general instability that has persisted since New Year’s Day.
Mizuho’s view aligns with the broader Wall Street sentiment. Analysts on average rate Palantir a ‘Hold,’ with consensus price targets pointing to roughly 16.7% upside upside in 2026, per data retrieved by Finbold from TipRanks on January 22.
Why Mizuho forecasts a 21% rally for Palantir stock in 2026
Considering Mizuho’s latest Palantir stock rating and 12-month price target was a reiteration of the forecast made in November, it stands to reason that the reasoning has remained largely unchanged.
At the time, the Wall Street analysis firm noted the technology giant’s exceptionally strong results, as exemplified by the then-recent third-quarter (Q3) earnings report, which substantially beat expectations and showed a 63% year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth.
Since then, Palantir has only reinforced its bull case by continuing its numerous government and private sector engagements.
A stand-out contract for the company has been the one aimed at developing the so-called artificial intelligence (AI)-powered ‘ImmigrationOS’ for the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Said agreement provided a significant boost for Palantir and is set to run through 2027 at least.
Palantir CEO claims AI boosts civil liberties
The contract is simultaneously topical, considering that Alex Karp, the CEO of Palantir – notably, the company is frequently described as a surveillance firm in online spaces – recently commented that AI helps ‘bolster civil liberties.’
Karp, who previously complained that, despite his company providing multiple E.U. countries with advanced software, he cannot discuss said contracts due to European leaders being coy regarding employing the technology, also warned that Europe is falling behind China and the U.S. regarding AI.
The ‘ImmigrationOS’ is also relevant in January 2026, as Alex Karp noted that artificial intelligence is set to make immigration obsolete due to mass job displacement.
Featured image via Shutterstock
