As Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock fell by more than 25% in July 2026 due to second-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ expectations, Stephen Gengaro, a Wall Street expert at Stifel Nicolaus, signaled a cautiously positive outlook for the company’s shares over the next 12 months.
Gengaro maintained a Buy rating for Tesla stock, according to a note Finbold analyzed on August 3. He, however, cut the firm’s 12-month price target to $491 from $508, representing a reduction of 3.35%. With TSLA shares trading at $311.21 at press time, this analyst signals a potential 57.77% upside.
“Cautiously positive – Stifel maintains Buy on progress in FSD, Robotaxi and demand, while cutting its target after margin and EBITDA weakness,” Gengaro argued.
The analyst highlighted that Tesla posted record deliveries of 480,126 and a revenue beat, as per its second-quarter 2026 report. However, Gengaro lowered the 12-month target for TSLA price due to the company’s stalled gross profit and adjusted EBITDA of $3.27 billion, which missed consensus.
Most importantly, the firm believes that Tesla is making strong progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi. With the company’s launch of Model YL, Gengaro expects a demand resurgence, bolstered by Tesla’s largest order backlog since 2023.
Tesla stock price forecast 2026
Although Tesla stock price has plunged by more than 30% year-to-date (YTD), trading at $311.21 at the time of reporting, Wall Street analysts forecast a potential rebound. Furthermore, Tesla stock recorded more sell-off in July as the mixed quarterly earnings report weighed down on expectations.
Notably, 28 analysts surveyed by TipRanks have set an average 12-month price target of $382.65, signaling a likelihood of a near 23% upside. Consequently, the average Hold rating for Tesla stock shows that Wall Street is not anticipating a fresh bull rally over the coming 12 months.
