XRP’s troubled late-2025 run is likely to extend further, with the asset facing the risk of revisiting trading below the $1 level.

In this context, insights from prominent on-chain cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez warned that XRP is showing weakening support below the $1.77 price level, increasing the probability of a deeper corrective move toward the $0.79 zone, according to an X post published on December 20.

The analysis is based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart from Glassnode, which shows a significant portion of XRP supply concentrated at higher price levels, while demand clusters thin out sharply below $1.77.

The URPD data indicates that XRP accumulated heavily between $1.95 and $2.14, leaving many holders underwater as prices fall, a setup that historically adds sell pressure. 

The $1.77 level stands out as a key pivot, with thin realized volume beneath it, signaling weak support if it breaks. Below $1.77, the strongest realized supply cluster sits near $0.79, a major historical accumulation zone that could attract price during a deeper correction. 

Intermediate areas around $1.41, $1.27, and $1.01 show limited realized supply and are likely to offer only brief pauses rather than a durable floor.

It is worth noting that XRP has been under immense pressure in recent sessions despite several catalysts, including impressive inflows into the asset’s spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

Even so, the asset is showing short-term strength in line with broader market sentiment, led by Bitcoin’s (BTC) attempt to reclaim the $90,000 level.

XRP price analysis 

By press time, XRP was trading at $1.95, up 4.5% over the past 24 hours, while on a weekly basis the asset has declined by more than 4%.

Notably, at the current price, XRP remains well below its key moving averages (MA), reinforcing a bearish technical structure. 

The 50-day simple moving average near $2.18 and the 200-day SMA around $2.55 are both above the current price, signaling that short- and long-term momentum remains tilted to the downside. This alignment suggests rallies may face resistance unless XRP can reclaim at least the 50-day average.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at roughly 41, indicating neutral but weak momentum. While XRP is not yet oversold, the RSI remains below the 50 midpoint, showing that buying pressure is still subdued.

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