As Bitcoin (BTC) heads toward the end of 2025, amid struggles to reclaim the $90,000 spot, attention has shifted to how the digital currency might trade in 2026.
Notably, in short-term trading, Bitcoin has continued to post further losses and is now facing the threat of losing the $85,000 support. By press time, BTC was valued at $86,775, having dropped 0.7% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeline, the cryptocurrency has modestly gained 0.4%.
To this end, Finbold sought insight into how the asset might trade in the new year from OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Notably, in arriving at its price outlook, the model took into account recent market behavior, institutional adoption trends, macroeconomic conditions, and historical cycle patterns.
In general, the model noted that 2026 will be a year of consolidation rather than unchecked upside.
Bitcoin’s base case for 2026
According to ChatGPT’s forecast, Bitcoin is likely to trade within a broad range of $110,000 to $160,000 in 2026, with an average price around $135,000. This base-case outlook reflects expectations that Bitcoin will maintain levels well above previous cycle highs while struggling to extend parabolic momentum without a significant liquidity or macro catalyst.
The prediction is grounded in Bitcoin’s evolving market structure. Following the 2024 halving, supply growth has slowed materially, but ChatGPT noted that supply dynamics alone are no longer sufficient to drive exponential gains.
Instead, institutional flows, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs, are expected to play a central role. While these inflows are likely to remain supportive, the pace of accumulation is projected to normalize as Bitcoin becomes more integrated into traditional portfolio allocation strategies.
ChatGPT’s outlook also reflects the growing maturity of the Bitcoin market. Compared with earlier cycles, retail speculation has faded, volatility has eased, and correlations with broader risk assets have strengthened, pointing to Bitcoin behaving more like a macro-sensitive digital commodity in 2026 and limiting extreme price swings.
Bitcoin bullish case
In a more optimistic scenario, ChatGPT sees Bitcoin reaching between $180,000 and $220,000 in 2026. This would require sustained ETF inflows from pensions and sovereign investors, a global shift toward looser monetary conditions, and deeper acceptance of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
Under such conditions, Bitcoin could revisit late-cycle enthusiasm, though gains would still be more measured than in earlier bull markets.
On the downside, ChatGPT outlined a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin falls into a $70,000 to $95,000 range. This outcome would likely be driven by a prolonged risk-off macro environment, regulatory disruptions, or notable ETF outflows. Even so, the model suggests Bitcoin would likely remain well above pre-ETF and pre-halving price levels, indicating that structural support has strengthened.
Overall, ChatGPT characterizes 2026 not as a crash year or a euphoric breakout year, but as a normalization phase.
Featured image via Shutterstock
