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What will happen to Tesla stock if Trump cuts Musk off?

Diana Paluteder

Elon Musk has never been shy about his disdain for big government. And yet, many of Musk’s companies have thrived thanks to government subsidies, tax credits, and federal contracts. The same “handouts” he often derides are, in many ways, the lifeblood of his business empire.

The tension came to a head on June 3, when Musk took to X to denounce the “big, beautiful bill,” a proposal aimed at eliminating EV tax credits and slashing clean energy funding. He called the legislation a “disgusting abomination.”

President Trump, never one to let criticism slide, hit back hard. In a Truth Social post, he accused Musk of being self-serving and reliant on “billions and billions of dollars” in federal aid. He even threatened to strip Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX of their subsidies and contracts. 

Donald J. Trump on Truth Social

Tesla’s stock was down over 14% at market close on June 5 following the spat, wiping out more than $150 billion in market cap. Investors, already jittery over slowing EV demand and rising competition, were now facing the prospect of a Tesla without its government safety net.

Tesla’s rising reliance on regulatory credits 

In Q1 2025, Tesla earned $595 million in regulatory credit revenue while reporting $409 million in net income. That’s 145% of quarterly profit, meaning Tesla would have posted a net loss without these credits.

In fact, Tesla’s reliance on regulatory credits has been increasing over the years:

Period Regulatory credit revenue Net income (profit) Credits as % of net income
Q1 2025 $595 million $409 million 145%
Q1 2024 $442 million $1.39 billion 31.8%
FY 2024 $2.76 billion $7.09 billion 38.9%
FY 2023 $1.79 billion $14.99 billion 11.9%
FY 2022 $1.78 billion $12.56 billion 14.2%

And, then there’s the federal EV tax credit, also targeted in Trump’s proposed bill, which can shave up to $7,500 off consumers’ purchase prices. This credit is a huge boost to Tesla’s sales, especially as its vehicles grow more expensive and new competition undercuts them on price.

As we can see, these credits have become an increasingly needed source of profit. Tesla’s bottom line isn’t just driven by innovation or sleek product design. It’s also powered by policy. And that makes the company, and Musk himself, far more vulnerable to Washington’s shifting winds than he’d like to admit. 

Featured image via Shutterstock.

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