Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is at the center of excitement over the company’s new product lineup, but investors are cautious about its stock performance. Despite this environment, long-term price targets like $400 remain in focus.
The target is a possibility despite the ‘disappointing‘ October 10 Robotaxi Day event, during which TSLA plunged 8.8%.
By the close of the latest market session, Tesla stock was valued at $217.97, dropping 0.40% for the day. These losses have extended on the weekly chart, with TSLA down 1.6%. Before the market opening on October 23, the EV maker showed additional weakness, dropping 0.25% in pre-market trading.
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TSLA’s stock price path to $400
When looking at Tesla’s trajectory toward $400, stock trading analyst Peter DiCarlo outlined a potential path, citing several elements investors need to be aware of in an X post on October 23.
The analysis estimated that Tesla could reach the milestone by December 2026 after reviewing the stock’s price action on the monthly timeframe, emphasizing that despite some volatility, there is reason to be bullish in the long term.
A key driver for his $400 price target is Tesla’s consistent formation of higher lows on the chart, signaling underlying strength in the stock. This pattern suggests that while short-term fluctuations may occur, Tesla’s long-term trajectory remains upward.
According to DiCarlo, once Tesla clears the key $275 level, the equity could rise to $375 or even $429, aligning with its 2021 all-time high, offering a 63% potential upside. He believes that once $275 is breached, Tesla could reach $400 within two years.
“Once we can clear this level of $275, there will be nothing stopping Tesla moving back up to at least $375, but what I would expect, $429, this would hit our equal high back in November of 2021,” the expert said.
However, DiCarlo expressed caution, noting that a pullback could occur if earnings disappoint or other negative catalysts arise. A break below the critical $180 support could lead to a drop as low as $84, although DiCarlo considers this scenario unlikely. Still, investors should be prepared for such a shift in market sentiment.
Impact of Tesla’s Q3 earnings report
A key catalyst for Tesla is the Q3 earnings report slated for October 23, after the closing bell, even as analysts continue to offer mixed signals regarding what to expect. Estimates indicate that Tesla will report revenue of $25.4 billion, up from $23.4 billion in the same quarter last year, despite concerns about plateauing revenue.
Some market players, however, expect little impact from the earnings, citing poor delivery numbers for the third quarter as a precursor. Notably, Tesla delivered 462,890 units for the quarter ending September 2024, a 6% year-over-year increase but slightly short of analysts’ expectations of 463,310.
On October 21, Jefferies equity researcher and managing director Philippe Houchois maintained his ‘Hold’ rating while setting a price target of $195, up from the previous $165.
While he acknowledged the poor impact of the Robotaxi event, Houchois noted that concerns about Tesla’s earnings report stem from operational issues and sustained concerns about governance and funding.
Tesla’s need to break long-standing “curse”
Meanwhile, charting platform TrendSpider noted that the earnings report could be a defining moment for Tesla. In an X post on October 23, they highlighted an implied move based on market expectations of +/- 6.5%, signaling the potential for notable volatility.
What’s particularly intriguing is the technical pattern emerging in Tesla’s stock price over the past three years. The weekly chart shows a clear trend of consecutive lower highs, raising the question of whether Elon Musk can finally reverse this long-standing “curse” and push Tesla into new territory.
As things stand, Tesla still has a chance to push toward the $400 mark, but the Q3 earnings report will be crucial in sparking investor confidence and preventing further losses at the current level.
