Rivian has so far had an auspicious start to 2025.
In early January, Rivian stock (NASDAQ: RIVN) had reached a price of $16.49 — levels not seen since late July of 2024, on account of surpassing analyst estimates for yearly delivery figures.
The rally was not to last, however — by late January, several analyst downgrades, combined with President Trump’s plans to roll back electric vehicle (EV) incentives saw prices recede to $12.69, despite initial optimism that RIVN shares could go as high as $20 apiece.
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At present, the automaker’s troubled start to the year seems to have gotten another chapter. On February 21, the EV maker opened at $12.89, down from a close of $14.01 a day prior. This 7.99% drop has brought weekly losses to 8.58%, and year-to-date (YTD) losses up to 3.12%.
Let’s take a closer look at the factors that drove this pullback — and whether it appears to be temporary, or a sign of long-term issues.
Rivian stock crashes on disappointing earnings, vehicle recall
Two key factors contributed to the crash — the first of which is the release of the company’s Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings report on February 20. Earnings — or rather, losses per share, came in at $0.46 — beating consensus estimates, which were pegged at $0.65. Revenues also beat forecasts — coming in at $1.73 billion, ahead of the average forecast of $1.4 billion.
A double beat usually causes a surge, not a crash — so it’s easy to deduce that other metrics stole the show. This time around, it was guidance. In 2025, Rivian expects to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 units — below the 52,000 vehicles delivered in 2024, and below analyst forecasts of 55,000.
To boot, the carmaker anticipates a loss before interest and taxes ranging between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion in the current year — whereas equity researchers set an average forecast of $1.69 billion.
That’s not all, however — a day after the earnings call, on February 21, the business also announced that more than 17,000 vehicles in the United States would be recalled over a headlight issue.
On a slightly brighter note, most of the analyst revisions that Rivian stock has received in the immediate aftermath of the earrings call have been positive — although most project a modest, single-digit upside in the preceding 12-month period.
Featured image via Shutterstock
