As Solana (SOL) trades just below the $200 mark amid broader market weakness, an analyst has suggested that the cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a sharp correction toward $105.
This outlook, shared by TradingShot in a TradingView post on October 21, is based on Solana’s trading pattern since bottoming out in early April. Since then, the token has moved within an upward channel, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.
The bullish structure has so far been supported by the 200-week moving average (MA), which acted as the foundation for the April rebound. However, the analyst noted that the latest pullback has exposed underlying weaknesses, bringing the token dangerously close to a key support level at the 200-day moving average around $165.
Despite holding this level on four successive tests, the outlook indicates that Solana’s price action shows signs of waning momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has softened, signaling fading bullish pressure, while the price remains squeezed between the short-term 50-day moving average at $194 and the long-term 200-day MA.
A decisive break below $165 could trigger a deeper selloff, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and potentially sending SOL back to the $105 region, coinciding with the 200-week MA support.
TradingShot’s model shows that Solana must hold above its 1D MA200 to avoid a breakdown of its bullish channel. A close below this level could trigger a reversal toward $105, while a holding firm could pave the way for a rebound toward $278.
SOL price analysis
By press time, Solana was trading at $188.94, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly chart the token is down 3.5%.
Currently, Solana reflects a cautious market tone, with the 50-day SMA standing at $213.46, notably above the current price, signaling short-term bearish pressure.
The 200-day SMA at $172.33 provides longer-term support, suggesting that while the broader trend remains intact, the asset is facing near-term headwinds.
At the same time, the 14-day RSI reads 42.34, placing Solana in neutral territory but leaning closer to oversold conditions. This points to consolidation rather than strong bullish conviction.
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